Wimbledon - Quarterfinal (Day 1) Predictions

Two exciting quarterfinals lie in store for us today. While Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner instal yet another chapter in their intriguing rivalry, Tommy Paul vyes to upset Carlos Alcaraz for a third time in an encounter that is sure to be competitive and fun-filled.

Sinner vs Medvedev

What a perplexing rivalry this has blossomed into. The first six times these two took to the court against each other, Medvedev swept all six of those meetings. But in the latter half of 2023, starting in the final of Beijing, it proved to be all Jannik. Now, the Italian seems to have the Russian completely figured out; his string of five consecutive victories against the fifth seed is only a testament to this remarkable turnaround. These five wins have come on the world's biggest stages, with Sinner getting the dub in the semifinals of the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, the finals of Beijing, Vienna - and perhaps the most important of the lot - the Australian Open. The World Number 1's most recent match against his 6'6" adversary resulted in a 6-2, 6-1 drubbing in his favour on the hard courts of Miami. After trying - coming excruciatingly close - and failing to successfully implement a more aggressive game plan in the AO final, Daniil reattempted this strategy in Key Biscayne. However, much to the despair of Medvedev - who won Miami the previous year - this simply didn't pay off. Errors flowed, and Sinner capitalised.

In their first six meetings, Medvedev didn't do anything special: he simply played his usual style of tennis, drawing Sinner into long, taxing rallies, weaving his web and extracting errors from the youngster's racket with the metronomic lull that he is so renowned for. But late in 2023, Sinner changed three things that rocked Daniil. First was his serve, which made it easier for him to take initiative of the point from the very get-go. Secondly was the Italian's physicality. In his earlier days, he just couldn't outlast the Russian from the baseline and saw his energy evaporate as the match edged on. Thirdly, and maybe most importantly, is his point construction. This mainly consists of two things - precise, controlled power and the ability to finish rallies at the net. Gone were the days of Sinner losing patience and spraying errors wildly. Since last year, the top seed has toned his aggression down - and by that, I don't mean he hit the ball any softer - but I mean that he simply waited for the right moments to be aggressive. For this, patience was key, and this led to a more measured brand of ballstriking. And when he found himself completely on top of the point, Sinner would foray into the net and swat the ball into the open court - an element that is so crucial against someone so adept at defending like Medvedev. While Sinner doesn't have the net skills as, say, Alcaraz, he certainly does enough to end points authoritatively. This has been critical against someone like Daniil, who isn't much of a baseline-hugger. All these three aspects combined have played a major role in the success that Jannik sees today in this head-to-head. In Medvedev's own words, what saw Sinner's recent triumphs against him was that the Italian simply started hitting the ball bigger and making fewer mistakes - which, to any tennis fan - whether they be a casual viewer or avid enthusiast - is a pretty sure shot recipe for success.

For Medvedev, it's a bit of an interesting mix; although the towering man prefers faster surfaces, he doesn't like them too fast where he'll be blown off court - but he doesn't like them too slow either, so his groundstrokes will have some viciousness to them and his serve can do enough damage. If you looked at grass, you'd say it's the perfect surface for the Russian - fast and low-bouncing, which will benefit his flat, penetrative groundstrokes immensely. But somehow, it just hasn't come together for the World Number 5, who is still searching for a title since his exploits at the Rome Masters last year. Ironically enough, that was on clay, which he considers his worst surface. Maybe it is about his mindset after all, and not the ground under his feet.

Jannik Sinner played one of his best matches of the tournament in the fourth round against Ben Shelton. He absorbed the fiery American's pace from the ground with ease, returning his mighty serve with supreme depth. Although he made some wayward errors in the third set as his concentration wavered, he saved a handful of set points before ultimately securing a quarterfinal berth. Medvedev received a walkover from Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16 at 5-3 in the first set, following a slip from Dimitrov that resulted in a serious groin injury. Daniil will be very well-rested, which will be something to look out for - especially as fatigue was what stopped him from capturing a second Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open earlier this year. But although the Russian has been performing well on Court 1 - where he has never lost a match - he has repeatedly expressed his disdain for Centre Court (where incidentally, this match will be played) due to its conditions; after being pushed to four awkward sets against Muller in the second round, Medvedev claimed that Centre Court was much slower than its other roofed acquaintance.

In the end, Jannik Sinner should win this meeting comfortably. Medvedev's defence has been rendered ineffective time and time again, and Sinner just has too much time and too many options on how to finish points. If Daniil does choose to be more aggressive, especially by moving up on the return and swiping at the ball earlier, I can't see it working out for him; this style of tennis is just too unnatural for him. It worked for two sets in the Australian Open final before Jannik figured it out; and we all saw what happened after that. Sinner will have his moments, and Medvedev is by no means meant to be underestimated: if the top seed's forehand goes walkabout at times like it did against Shelton, Medvedev will no doubt claim a set. But I can't see Sinner's level dipping for a prolonged enough period of time.

Prediction: Sinner in 4

Alcaraz vs Paul

Although this rivalry is nowhere near as eventful as the one we just discussed, it is still very interesting nonetheless. Their head-to-head is all square at 2-2, with Alcaraz claiming wins in Miami and Cincinnati and Paul snatching victories in Canada for two consecutive years (2022 and 2023). All four of their matches have come on hardcourt Masters 1000s. In a first meeting on grass, who will break the H2H tie?

Alcaraz has looked extremely vulnerable all tournament long. He was stretched to five sets against Frances Tiafoe in his third round, before very nearly being dealt the same fate against Ugo Humbert as he faced 0-40 on his own serve in the fourth set. Although Alcaraz clutched up when it mattered as usual, these wins shouldn't have been this tough considering the slumps both these men were experiencing. Tiafoe has a negative win-loss record this year, while Humbert has also been stuck in some bad form following a sizzling start to 2024 which included a title run in Dubai. However, with grass being the Frenchman's best surface, he can come alive at times - and he did in the third set against Alcaraz on Sunday. Carlos's serve still remains a bit of a liability on the grass, and Ugo's return - while usually unremarkable - was sending up fireworks in their Round of 16 match. While Alcaraz did well to save those three break points in the fourth set, his overall level is concerning, and his unforced error rate is unusually high.

For Tommy Paul, he has reached his third Grand Slam QF in style. He dismantled veteran Robert Bautista Agut in ruthless fashion and has been solid as ever at Wimbledon. However, he did survive a pretty shocking scare at the hands of Otto Virtanen in Round 2, but dug himself out of the sticky situation against the redlining Finn.

Paul's craftiness and steady brand of tennis have caused Alcaraz plenty of problems in the past, as evidenced by their even history. And with the indifferent form that the Spaniard finds himself in, the American will fancy his chances more than ever. Ultimately though, I will side with the defending champion here. Carlos is simply too rock-solid at Slam level, and it will take something extra-extra-special for Paul to knock him out here. While Paul definitely possesses great grass-court skills, touch and nimbleness, I don't think he has the raw power required to take the racket out of the third seed's hands. Based on their past encounters, this match may well go down the wire, and will have no shortage of entertainment. But once again, I am counting on Alcaraz's elite mentality and ability to raise his level when it matters most to get the job done.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 5