Australian Open 2025 - Round of 16 (Day 2) Predictions

While yesterday was a tad underwhelming in terms of tennis action, today promises to be tastier. Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner extend their spicy rivalry, while Monfils and Shelton engage in a clash of generations. Meanwhile, teen sensation Tien takes on Fonseca-slayer Sonego, with De Minaur also hoping to delight his home crowd.

Sinner vs Rune

The Holger Rune experience, as always, is a rollercoaster. After surviving five gruelling sets under the sweltering Aussie sun against the ever-steady presence of Zhizhen Zhang, many hoped for Holger's next match to be more straightforward. In his match against Zhang, Rune's ability to point-construct was tested sternly, and although there were flashes of slow, tactical brilliance, there also was a fair share of brainless ball-slapping peppered in. Nonetheless, the Dane came up clutch to progress. The second round, however, was where things were expected to turn rocky. Matteo Berrettini lay awaiting - the broad Italian who, whenever fit and healthy, has the potential to take the racket out of anyone's hands. As Berrettini went up a quick break in the first, many were bracing themselves for a marathon match. However, Rune put his thinking cap on, racing to a 7-3 win in the tiebreak. Although stuttering in the second set, the Dane was quick to regroup in the third, piling pressure on Matteo's backhand. But the fourth set was where things went slightly awry. After leading by a break, Holger quickly lost this advantage, and Berrettini drew things level in the blink of an eye. As Rune bubbled and simmered under the surface, the Italian earned himself a set point. However, he squandered it agonisingly with a chipped return in the net. Although he then found himself up 5-2 (!) in the tiebreak, it was Rune that showcased his mental toughness yet again, bagging the win at 8-6. For Berrettini, it was yet another case of the finish line yips, but Holger lived to fight another day. But the next match did not get any easier at all. Another solid baseliner - in the form of Miomir Kecmanovic - appeared. The Serb often posts his best results of the year in these early months, reaching the fourth round in Melbourne on two separate occasions ('24 and '22). This match was a sheer contrast of styles, as Kecmanovic's steady, metronomic groundstrokes attempted to keep the volatility of Rune at bay. As Miomir wrestled his way to a two-sets-to-one lead, things were looking grim for the 13th seed. Then, as he went down a break in the fourth, the match looked all but over. But then, Rune struck; in an inspired turnaround, the Dane nabbed the next 3 games to win the set, and finished on a high note by taking the decider 6-4. This completed his remarkable comeback, sending the crowd on Margaret Court Arena into a fervent frenzy. As observers of the sport, this pattern is all too familiar: Holger gets into unnecessary five-setters early on in Slams, only to run out of gas in the latter stages. In fact, Rune was already cramping in his match against Kecmanovic. When will he learn to preserve his energy?

Jannik Sinner, in contrast, has been solid yet unremarkable so far. After landing against a potentially dangerous opponent in his first round against Nicolas Jarry, the top seed withstood a cannonade of aggression to take the first two sets in two tight, down-to-the-wire tiebreaks. He then cruised to a win in the third. While many expected his Round of 64 to be much, much easier - after all, it was against an Aussie wildcard that experienced success mostly on the Challenger tour - things didn't go so well. Shockingly, the Italian dropped the first set. Schoolkate was serving flawlessly, and his shots were painting lines. Then, the inevitable struck, and Tristan's level tapered off while Jannik simultaneously raised his own. The match was sort of similar to Sinner's Round of 16 at Roland Garros last year, where he dropped the opening set 6-2 to Moutet. The World No. 1's next match against Marcos Giron was a much more comfortable affair against Marcos Giron, although he still made a fair few uncharacteristic errors.

This rivalry has been very heated so far. The H2H is level at 2-2, with their last two encounters coming as thrillers in Monte Carlo. While Rune often brings his top level against the elite, his most recent showdowns against higher-ranked opponents have been blowouts (the third round against Djokovic at Wimbledon last year comes to mind). It seems that the skill and mental gap is just too large to overcome. While he will make it competitive with his talent and clutchness, expect the rock-solid nature of Sinner's ground game to reign supreme.

Prediction: Sinner in 4

Sonego vs Tien

Learner Tien has taken the tennis world by storm this week. The 19-year-old American of Vietnamese heritage has stamped his mark at this year's Australian Open, upsetting defending finalist and World No. 5 Daniil Medvedev in the second round. Fascinatingly, Learner is named after his mother, who is a teacher. In fact, this name suits him perfectly - he is certainly a quick learner, and this has been evidenced by his majestic court-craft and surgical precision. Unlike many other of his compatriots from the States, Tien does not the have the biggest serve - or the biggest forehand. Instead, he makes his living through sheer tactical brilliance. After surviving his first match in 5 sets against the relatively unknown Ugo Carabelli, many were anticipating a routine defeat at the hands of 5th seed Medvedev. After all, the Russian is renowned for wearing his opponents down with taxing rallies, and Learner already having played a five-set marathon didn't really help his chances. However, the audience on Margaret Court Arena was taken aback on Thursday night as Tien beat Medvedev at his own game. After finding himself at a two-sets-to-love lead, Tien was in firm position to cause perhaps the biggest upset of the tournament. However, most were still weary; just last year, Medvedev had come back from two-sets-to-love down in his second round against a certain Emiil Ruusuvuori, and he certainly had the skillset and stamina to make history repeat itself. After saving match point in a tense third-set tiebreak and grabbing the fourth set 6-1, almost everyone was backing Medvedev to repeat yet another Houdini-esque escape. But Learner did not give way. The American kept at it, weaving his web in dizzyingly long rallies and playing simple, unremarkable tennis. Tien did not, unlike some of Medvedev's earlier opponents, aim to blow Daniil right off court; instead, he took his time, beating the Russian at his own game. Two things stood out the most here: one was Tien's stamina - to outlast Daniil Medvedev, one of the fittest players on tour, after already playing a five-setter in his previous round was simply insanity - and the other was Tien's adroit deployment of the backhand slice. The slice slowed down the pace of the rallies, bailing Tien out of defensive positions, and knifed and skidded through the court, forcing Daniil to generate his own pace. Once again, Medvedev left fans disappointed. Not only did he serve for the match at 6-5 in the fifth, but he also lead the super-tiebreak at 7-6, and had a pretty straightforward volley that he simply bunted back to Tien, leaving him open to the passing shot. Will Medvedev fall out of the Top Ten soon?

Lorenzo Sonego has also produced his best Slam result to date here at Melbourne Park. After taking out veteran Stan Wawrinka to start off his campaign - producing the shot of the tournament so far in the process - the Italian took on someone much younger in his second round. Joao Fonseca had just earned his maiden Grand Slam upon debut, routing 9th seed Rublev in straight sets. Before the match, everyone was firmly aboard the Fonseca hype train, expecting the Brazilian to give a similar style of beat down to Sonego. However, experience prevailed, and after sealing a lungbusting five-set triumph, the Italian silenced all his doubters. Sonego's next match was against the ever-dangerous Marozsan. One of the cleanest ballstrikers on tour, the Hungarian is also equipped with a devilish dropshot. In the first two sets, Lorenzo was being pushed around by Fabian's swift groundstrokes. However, facing three set points for a two-sets-to-love lead, Marozsan faltered. Suddenly, it was one set all, and before he knew it, Sonego had won the next two sets commandingly.

This is a very tough match to predict. I am wary of the hype train and Fonseca's downfall in the second round, but also want to give Tien the benefit of the doubt. Ultimately, this match will rest on Tien's fitness, having already played two five-setters in the first two rounds. I am choosing the more experienced player to come out on top here in a very tight encounter.

Prediction: Sonego in 5

Monfils vs Shelton

Gael Monfils is experiencing a resurgene here at this year's AO. Just a few days after winning the title in Auckland, the Frenchman was slated against his countryman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round of the event. Mpetshi Perricard was one of the dark horses of the tournament, and everybody expected Gael to be exhausted after his astonishing feats the week before. But the 38-year-old surprised everyone. By racing to a two set lead, Monfis was weathering GMP's serve brilliantly, taming the towering 30th seed's groundstrokes with some signature counterpunching. However, match point came and went in the third set, and Monfils dropped the tiebreak with a dismal double fault. When Mpetshi Perricard also squeezed through the fourth set, it looked like things were done for Monfils. However, the Frenchman roared in the decider, grabbing just the second break of the match to seal it. Throughout the entire encounter, Monfils did not face a single break point. Gael's next match against Daniel Altmaier was much more convincing, as he got the job done in straight sets. However, it looked like the end of the road for the veteran in the third round, as he was drawn against the World No. 4 Taylor Fritz. The American was on a tear towards the end of last year, reaching the final of both the US Open and the Nitto ATP Finals. On paper, it seemed like a nightmare matchup for Monfils, who would be bullied by the calibre of Fritz's thunderous serve + forehand combo. The first set saw this pattern play out; as Monfils stood metres behind the baseline, Fritz devoured him. However, the second set saw the Frenchman implement a different strategy, and he took the second set 7-5. As the third set approached a tiebreak, fans were on the edge of their seats. But Monfils produced a stunning display in the breaker, losing only 1 point in a masterclass of controlled aggression. Gael then sealed the match with an ace in the fourth, causing an upset of gargantuan proportions. Ultimately, Fritz's lack of net play saw to his downfall.

Ben Shelton, as always, has brought his best level to the hardcourt slams. Although many (including myself) thought he would be bundled out in the first round to Brandon Nakashima, Shelton navigated this obstacle with no trouble. His front-foot brand of tennis completely overpowered his American countryman from the back of the court. He faced a similar opponent in his second round match in Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard also possesses a physical style of tennis, and although Shelton momentarily lost focus to drop the third-set tiebreak, he reigned the ropes back in quickly to finish the match in four. In the Round of 32, Ben locked horns with his toughest opponent yet: 16th seed Lorenzo Musetti. Although the flamboyant Italian has more of a knack for natural surfaces like grass and clay, he was making light work of his draw this week. In an entertaining encounter filled with flair, panache and seismic shotmaking, Shelton prevailed yet again, directing large amounts of traffic to the Musetti backhand and reaping the benefits.

This is another match that I believe comes down to fitness. Stylistically, the matchup is pretty even. Ben will try to move his older adversary around the court with his brutish serve and groundstrokes, while Gael will attempt to extract as many errors as possible with his defence. However, Monfils is running on fumes, and I can't see him living with Ben from the back of the court for long enough.

Prediction: Shelton in 5

De Minaur vs Michelsen

Alex Michelsen is another one of the Next-Gen contenders that has announced himself on the bigger stage this week. Coming up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round, the lumbering American put on a stellar exhibition to send the 2023 finalist packing. In the lively, bouncy day conditions, Michelsen targeted the Greek's backhand just enough to cause problems. For Tsitsipas, it is further woes, as Melbourne is one of his favourite destinations on tour. Although Stefanos was self-proclaimedly attempting to "reinvent" himself over the off-season, these turned out to empty words. Meanwhile, Michelsen has blazed through his side of the field. Alex then ran into Aussie wildcard James Mccabe in the second round, and came through that match comfortably in straight sets. However, many anticipated his next match against Khachanov to be a much sterner test. The Russian often saved his best tennis for the Grand Slams, making the semifinals here in Australia just two years ago. Khachanov often turns his matches into wars of attrition, grinding his opponents down from the baseline with heavy strokes. But he was no match for Michelsen's firepower, and was rendered helpless in another three convincing sets. Alex is having the time of his life so far at the Sunshine Slam. The one thing that has stood out to me most notably is his movement; when he first started out on tour, Michelsen was a tall but slow mover. However, he has made drastic improvements in this category, translating to major success on-court.

De Minaur, meanwhile, has sort of flown under the radar. As Australia's top-ranked and sole remaining hope in the tournament, he is seeking to follow a best ever career-year last year with a first quarterfinal at his home Slam. After two routine victories against Van de Zandschulp and Boyer in the opening two rounds, the Demon played his worst match of the tournament in the Round of 32 against Cerundolo. Although he was up a break in the first set, he quickly squandered this lead while serving for it, double faulting on Francisco's set point to drop the opener. In the second set, he found himself up yet another break, but once again dropped this advantage as the Argentine dragged proceedings to a tiebreaker. However, as he always does, Cerundolo wilted under pressure. Demon grabbed the second set in the nick of time with a celebratory scream. In the end, Cerundolo's erratic play handed the Aussie the match on platter, as unforced errors racked up for the 31st seed. However, even with the win, it was no means a clean match from Alex, who won ugly that day. The most concerning aspect of his game was his serve, especially the ball toss. He must improve this if he hopes to progress further.

This match is yet another classic in the making. I believe it will go down to the wire, as Michelsen will try to be as aggressive and domineering as possible. Their last meeting on hard courts was last year, with Michelsen earning himself a convincing win 6-4 6-1. However, the circumstances were wildly different back then, with the Demon just coming off a draining run to the Rotterdam final just days before. In this match, I am predicting De Minaur to draw one too many errors from the American's racket, and with his fitness and the crowd on his side, should put a stop to Michelsen's blistering run.

Prediction: De Minaur in 5