Wimbledon 2024 - Tournament Preview and Analysis

I know, I know. Even though it seems like just yesterday that Carlos Alcaraz came back from two sets to love down to oust Zverev in a tense, topsy-turvy tussle and bag his maiden Roland Garros title, the iconic lawns of Wimbledon are already here. That's just the way things go in tennis; the grass swing is notoriously brief. Just like the French Open, Alcaraz and Sinner have landed in the same half of the draw, with an injured Djokovic on the other side.

Here at Cross-Court Tennis, we're going to unpack this intriguing draw and provide our very own preview, analysis and prediction on what's going to happen this fortnight at Wimbledon 2024.

Jannik Sinner's Quarter

Expectations are high for Jannik Sinner, who is top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time. Will he rise to the occasion, or wilt under the pressure of a nightmare draw?

Top Seeds: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (10) Grigor Dimitrov, (14) Ben Shelton, (19) Nicolas Jarry, (22) Adrian Mannarino, (27) Tallon Griekspoor, (32) Zhizhen Zhang

Projected Quarterfinal: Sinner vs Medvedev

Dark Horse: Matteo Berrettini, Denis Shapovalov

Early Blockbuster: Berrettini vs Fucsovics R1, Jarry vs Shapovalov R1, Sinner vs Berrettini R2, Monfils vs Wawrinka R2

Jannik Sinner would have probably groaned aloud after seeing this draw. As the top seed, his path to the final is fraught with danger; although he won the ATP 500 Halle just two weeks ago, he will be extremely wary of the dangerous obstacles lying in his way to a second Grand Slam. His first-round matchup is against Yannick Hanfmann. The nifty German certainly possesses the skills to disrupt on grass, but his consistency is where the issue lies. His straight-sets loss to Adam Walton in the first round of Mallorca last week tells us that he's in a rough patch of form - and this will only be made rougher by Sinner and his impenetrability from the back of the court. However, for the Italian, the second round is when things start to get tangled.

Matteo Berrettini - always a dark horse on these lawns - looms in the Round of 64. However, he may have some trouble in his opening round against Fucsovics, who is a former quarterfinalist here and can pack a punch on grass. This match will be one to watch, but Berrettini should come through given that Fucsovics hasn't played on the grass all season long. The powerful Italian, nicknamed 'The Hammer', is a former Wimbledon finalist - and made a show-stopping run to the fourth round of the Championships last year before falling to eventual champion Alcaraz in four sets. What was particularly impressive about this string of wins is that he had been injured for the majority of 2023, and had only played one match coming into Wimbledon. But equipped with his wicked slice and deadly serve plus one combination, Matteo took out 15th seed De Minaur and Alexander Zverev in three convincing sets en route to the Round of 16. Can he pull off another inspiring run in 2024? I doubt it. Although Berrettini made the final of Stuttgart, he's coming off a bad loss to Giron in Halle. In terms of the stylistic matchup, it bodes bad news for Berrettini too - Sinner is going to eat Berrettini's backhand for breakfast. Even Matteo's fitness over five sets is questionable - and to top it all off, Jannik Sinner has an astonishingly one-sided win-loss record against his Italian compatriots. Carota Boy rarely shows mercy to his fellow countrymen.

Tallon Griekspoor awaits in the third round for Jannik, and although he has a high ceiling, often runs into Sinner in his tournaments - and loses. I doubt this time will be any different. But you have to feel for Tallon though. Ben Shelton is the top seed's projected fourth-round opponent, but I'm definitely not expecting him to make it that far. The thunderous American has all the tools to succeed on this surface, including one of the world's fastest serves. However, his rally tolerance tends to be atrocious at times, and this grass season has only brought his weaknesses to the fore.

Instead, my pick for Sinner's fourth-round adversary is Denis Shapovalov. The mercurial Canadian tends to make waves on the Wimbledon grass, reaching the semis in 2021 and almost reaching the quarterfinals last year before his knee injury. His first opponent is Nicolas Jarry, who has missed the grass-court swing due to an infection and usually underperforms when rusty. Although Lloyd Harris - who also resides in this section - may be a problem, what with his renewed form and string of Challenger-level successes, I expect El Shapo to progress. But Denis is too inconsistent to give Sinner any trouble. Expect the Italian to cruise to the quarterfinals.

Far, far away, the other seed headlining this quarter is Daniil Medvedev. After his entertaining escapades at the Australian Open, the fifth seed has been unconvincing in 2024. His time in Halle was cut short by Zhizhen Zhang in a final set tiebreaker, after which the Russian swiped his racket on the grass multiple times in frustration. Mentally, Medvedev doesn't seem like he's in the right place, and he may even be lacking a bit of motivation. Luckily for him, this pocket of the draw is relatively tame. With a comfortable first two rounds against Kovacevic and then either Gaston or Muller, he will arrive at the third round most likely awaiting either Jan-Lennard Struff or Zhang. Struff has been stellar this year on the clay, and seemed to have translated this form to the grass when he almost toppled Sinner two weeks ago in Halle in a thrilling quarterfinal berth. His serve-and-volley tactics and dazzling touch are sure to cause problems for the rest of the draw. However, even though the German can be explosive at times, he is yet to prove anything at Grand Slam level. And although Zhang beat Medvedev recently in Halle, I will trust Daniil to turn things around in the best-of-five format like he usually does. An example of this came just last year, with Medvedev crashing out to Mannarino in his s-Hertogenbosch opener but routing the Frenchman three weeks later at this very venue. Grigor Dimitrov is also very dangerous here. However, the Bulgarian hasn't posted any notable results at the Championships since 2014, and although his game should translate perfectly to grass on paper, it just hasn't worked out. Elsewhere in this section, a potential second-round clash between two veterans is in store. Gael Monfils and Stan Wawrinka will look to light things up in an R2 face-off, and although their primes are a thing of the past, it will be an interesting matchup to see nonetheless.

I'm backing Medvedev and Sinner to face off in the quarterfinals. Even though this seems like a blockbuster on paper, the latter should breeze through. This is no hardcourt, and the Russian just seems a bit lost on the grass to deal Sinner any real damage.

Quarterfinal prediction: Sinner d. Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz’s Quarter

After an underwhelming campaign at Queens, the defending champ looks to replicate his riveting run to the title last year.

Top Seeds: (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (8) Casper Ruud, (12) Tommy Paul, (16) Ugo Humbert, (18) Sebastian Baez, (23) Alexander Bublik, (29) Frances Tiafoe, (32) Mariano Navone

Projected Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs Ruud

Dark horse: Jakub Mensik, Jordan Thompson

Early blockbuster: Mensik vs Bublik R1, Tiafoe vs Arnaldi R1

Carlos Alcaraz will be feeling very upbeat and optimistic at the thought of a title defence here at Wimbledon 2024. The Roland Garros champion is attempting to translate his clay-court form to the quickness of the lawns. The Spaniard has been gifted a very merciful draw and is primed to capitalise. He will be sure to pounce on this breezy quarter of the draw and ease himself into some much-needed form. For Alcaraz, it should be all smooth sailing until at least the quarterfinals. His first-round opponent is Mark Lajal, the 21-year-old qualifier from Estonia who first burst onto the scene in Antwerp last year where he earned his first and only main draw win. It will be only the second time on the ATP tour that Alcaraz plays someone younger than himself. Lajal has been imperious in qualifying, dropping only one set along the way. However, Alcaraz will be a step too far in terms of quality and the youngster will be too inexperienced to make this a match.

Carlos’s comfort continues further down the path, with his second round being against either Vukic or Ofner. Both of these men had great weeks in Eastbourne and Mallorca respectively, with Vukic reaching the semifinals as a lucky loser and Ofner barging his way into a maiden final. However, these men do not possess enough weaponry or consistency to budge Alcaraz, and will likely be tired from their feats last week. In the third round, the Spaniard is projected to run into 29th seed Tiafoe. However, I doubt the patchy American will make it this far, as he has been struggling badly in terms of form since the US Open last year. He may even lose to unseeded Arnaldi in his opener, who is ever-dangerous in these early rounds. I expect this first-round encounter to be full of fireworks and flashy tennis. Ugo Humbert, the third seed’s potential Round of 16 adversary, has a knack for grass. His whippy lefty groundstrokes and slider serve have dealt a lot of damage on this surface in the past. However, he too is one of the weaker seeds in terms of form, and after an inspiring start to the year, the Frenchman has been dealt a few bad losses lately. Instead, Jordan Thompson might just catch fire here; the veteran Aussie has been playing better than ever in 2024 and is always potent on the grass. But I am picking Alcaraz to reach the quarters without any trouble nonetheless.

This other half of the quarter, however, is more wide open than most. Eighth seed Casper Ruud has never reached the third round here at Wimbledon, and his downright refusal to play any warmup events before SW19 has often led to his downfall. He has a very tricky first-round opponent in qualifier Alex Bolt. The Aussie’s flat groundstrokes suit the grass quite well, and he will be used to these conditions from qualifying. Even if Ruud manages to pass this test, I see him faltering in the second round at the hands of Dominik Koepfer. Casper simply lacks match practice on the grass and his inadaptability to this surface is concerning; ultimately, Ruud’s seeding in this draw is a bit of a hoax. Overall, this part of the draw is up in the air. This is why I am backing Tommy Paul to seal a quarterfinal berth. The nimble American won his first ATP 500 in Queens and has the potential to take big strides here. I believe Tommy’s fourth-round opponent will be the talented young Jakub Mensik. Mensik has a bit of a coin-toss first round against the enigma that is Alexander Bublik; but if Bublik’s mind starts to wander and Mensik’s booming serve starts firing, an upset is on the cards. The Czech could very well reach the Round of 16 here with the bossy, authoritative brand of tennis he has displayed this year. But I am counting on Paul’s craftiness to outfox him and secure his place in the quarters.

Paul vs Alcaraz should be a tasty quarterfinal matchup. The American consistently troubles Alcaraz and has even beaten the Spaniard on two occasions, with their overall head-to-head all tied up at 2-2. While this has all the potential to be a blockbuster, I’m choosing Carlos to live up to the moment.

Quarterfinal prediction: Alcaraz d. Paul

Alexander Zverev's Quarter

Sascha is yet to hit his stride on the grass, but will be hungrier than ever to navigate his way to the business end of his least successful Slam.

Top Seeds: (4) Alexander Zverev, (6) Andrey Rublev, (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (13) Taylor Fritz, (20) Sebastian Korda, (24) Alejandro Tabilo, (25) Lorenzo Musetti, (28) Jack Draper

Projected Quarterfinal: Zverev vs Rublev

Dark Horse: Jack Draper

Early Blockbuster: Korda vs Davidovich Fokina R1

This is perhaps the most stacked quarter of the bunch, and by far the most open. Although this patch of the draw is filled to the brim with an all-star lineup and big names, the vulnerability of the top seeds such as Zverev, Rublev and Tsitsipas really throws things into uncertainty. There seem to be countless possibilities and combinations here for who makes the quarterfinal, and we're going to give it our best shot.

Let's start with Alexander Zverev. The fourth seed has some heavy weight on his shoulders after a gruelling run to the French Open final. In Paris, the towering German grit his teeth and pulled out some magical wins over a few taxing five-setters before ultimately bowing out in the final to Alcaraz. Can he repeat those performances on these hallowed lawns? Unfortunately, I see him crashing out pretty early. After a relatively straightforward opener against clay-court specialist Carballes Baena, Zverev faces his first stern test in Marcos Giron. Marcos has been solid this grass season, stretching eventual champion Jack Draper to three sets in Stuttgart before posting big upsets against Rublev and Berrettini in Halle. Once again, he lost to eventual finalist Hurkacz in two tight sets there. Although the American lost in the second round of Eastbourne last week, that was more due to lingering fatigue - but once he's all rested and fresh, he may just wreak havoc against Zverev in the Round of 64 - especially given how prone Sascha is to five-set battles in his early Slam rounds. Giron has flat, penetrative groundstrokes and a refined skillset that stands out on grass, and will present just the style of tennis to trouble the World Number 4. But although he might nab a set or two, I am expecting Zverev to show his mettle and progress to the third round.

But this is where the story gets tough for Big Z: the newly crowned British Number 1 Jack Draper lurks in the shadows. Draper seems to have finally lived up to his hype, and with impeccable serving numbers and a sharp backhand, has taken the tennis scene by storm. He won his maiden title in Stuttgart with a triumph over dark horse Berrettini, and carried this momentum into Queen's by routing Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets. Although Jack fell to Tommy Paul next round, he is playing some fearlessly aggressive tennis and is slowly evolving into a real problem for the rest of the tour. If his fitness keeps up, he poses a formidable threat to Sascha given the German's dissonance with the Wimbledon grass. Expect Draper's ultra-flat backhand to unsettle Zverev, who will find it difficult to swoop down on this low-bouncing surface and swipe at the ball with his gangly, albatross limbs given his colossal height of 6'6". Draper should meet the expectations and send his British following into a frenzy with a fourth-round run.

Taylor Fritz also has a spot in this section of the draw. The 13th seed recently scored a hat-trick of Eastbourne titles, and is finding his rhythm on this surface after an uncharacteristic loss to Thompson at Queens. He has a very favourable draw, and his serve is sure to pack some extra venom on these courts. After a couple of routine rounds, he could collide with another recent champion in Alejandro Tabilo. However, I don't see the lefty going deep here given how much time he spent on court at Mallorca. Fritz should beat Draper in the Round of 16. The American, who is currently wrestling for the spot as top-ranked American with compatriot Paul, has a very well-rounded game and even made the quarterfinals here at the Championships in 2022. Draper's inexperience at slam level and lack of fitness will eventually see him fall short against Fritz.

Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev headline the other half of this quarter. Although grass is ill-famed for being Stefanos's worst surface, he actually has a quite reasonable draw this year. There are no big servers or monstrous hitters standing in his way, and if he can avoid his main issue of being blown off-court and protect his backhand successfully in rallies, I can see him playing himself into form. With two comfortable rounds against Daniel and either McDonald or Ruusuvuori, he could face Seb Korda in the third round. While the American was flamed last year for his infamous self-proclamation as one of the "Wimbledon favourites" before exiting in the first round, he has lived up to this statement more than ever this year. Although he squares off against Davidovich Fokina in R1, the volatile Spaniard often falls prey to his own inconsistency. But make no mistake; if it all clicks into place for ADF, he could make a run here. But Korda does not possess the raw power and brute force on the serve required to knock Tsitsipas out.

Andrey Rublev has also been scratchy as of late. He has a couple of clay-courters in his path before a potential showdown with Musetti. Like Korda, the Italian has been exceptional this grass swing by making the semis of Stuttgart and the final of Queens. His devilish variety is making much noise on the surface. However, I am trusting Rublev's slam pedigree to live up to its name and muscle his way into Round Four. In this Tsitsipas-Rublev matchup, I will always favour the Russian on the grass because of his bruising inside-out forehand making life hell for Stef.

This quarterfinal is familiar. Although Fritz leads the H2H 5-4, their battles have always been on slow surfaces and we are yet to see this matchup move to an ultra-fast surface such as this. I will back Rublev to break his quarterfinal curse because of the weapons in his arsenal, which will augmented by the court speed.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Rublev d. Fritz

Novak Djokovic's Quarter

With concerns of a knee injury, Djokovic has been granted a forgiving draw to ease himself into rhythm.

Top Seeds: (2) Novak Djokovic, (7) Hubert Hurkacz, (9) Alex de Minaur, (15) Holger Rune, (17) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (21) Karen Khachanov, (26) Francisco Cerundolo, (30) Tomas Etcheverry

Projected Quarterfinal: Djokovic vs Hurkacz

Dark Horse: Paul Jubb

Early Blockbuster: Auger-Aliassime vs Kokkinakis R1, Rune vs Jubb R2, Hurkacz vs Fils/Stricker R2

It has been a nightmare year for Novak Djokovic so far - at least, given his soaring standards. It only got worse during his fourth-round match against Francisco Cerundolo at the French Open, where he tore his meniscus. Although he somehow won that match in five intriguing sets, he had to subsequently withdraw from his quarterfinal berth against Casper Ruud. His Wimbledon campaign - along with one final shot at an elusive Olympic medal - was thrust into jeopardy. But now, just one month later, he seems fit and firing, ready to defend his final from last year, and as always, go one further step and capture a record-equalling eighth Wimbledon trophy. Injured or not, Djokovic is always a favourite for the title here at SW19. And with Lady Luck shining upon him, he has landed in a very generous half of the draw indeed.

The second seed kicks things off against qualifier Vit Kopriva, before a very smooth second round against either British wildcard Jacob Fearnley or Spanish clay-courter Alejandro Moro Canas. Two very kind opening rounds ticked off. With the Serb expected to clash against Etcheverry in the third round - a man who is still searching for a win on grass this season - or Popyrin, whose movement and general ability on the grass is questionable, Nole has a virtual bye into the fourth round. This will definitely help his knee recoup. Holger Rune resides on the other side of this section too. The Dane is still scrambling desperately to find his best tennis this year, and his floor is downright shocking at times. However, I do think that the more aggressive playstyle the 21-year-old has developed as of late will pay dividends on this surface. He has a cosy opener against Soonwoo Kwon, before potentially running into our dark horse Paul Jubb. Jubb first arrived at the tennis picture by pushing Nick Kyrgios, the eventual Wimbledon finalist, to five heart-stopping sets in 2021. Although he dipped down to Challengers for the next couple of years, he reasserted himself with a surprise appearance at the Mallorca semifinals, blitzing his way through qualifiers and saving match point against Ben Shelton in a thrilling final set breaker en route. If he catches Rune on an off day, which happens more often than not, he has a real chance to make a breakout run at a slam for the first time with the support of his home crowd. I think Rune will eventually make the Round of 16, but his indiscipline will see him crumble against Novak Djokovic.

The next highest seed and Novak's projected quarterfinal opponent is Hubert Hurkacz. The Pole, as always, is making waves on grass with his humongous serve, cat-like movement and sublime net skills. He made the final in Halle and put up an inspired display against Sinner before ultimately falling short in two tiebreaks - but he didn't go down without a battle. He plays Radu Albot in his first round, before a fun popcorn match against either Fils or Stricker. Dominic Stricker made a breakout run to the fourth round of the US Open last year, and although he has been injured since then, has the tools to excel on grass. Fils is also capable of some dynamic, explosive tennis on his day and put up a great fight against Zverev in Halle. Hurkacz should progress to the fourth round, where he will likely lock horns with another player in red-hot form: Alex de Minaur. The Aussie faces fellow compatriot and lucky loser James Duckworth in the opening round after Moutet withdrew with a bone bruise. Duckworth is always a tricky customer on the grass but the Demon should progress without any worries. Elsewhere, another Aussie, Kokkinakis, takes on 17th seed Auger-Aliassime. I can see Felix advancing to the Round of 32; however, he will most likely crack under the defensive pressures of De Minaur and his relentless retrieval skills. In the fourth round, Hurkacz will best De Minaur; the Aussie is just too underpowered to deal with the Pole and will be bullied by his serve.

I'm picking this quarterfinal to be a rematch of last year's Round of 16. I am also picking the outcome and manner of the match to be similar. Hubi is renowned for choking under pressure, and his forehand is prone to breaking down in tight situations. Moreover, Djokovic's top-notch return won't give the Pole's serve the same edge that it usually has. Even with a torn meniscus, Novak should stroll into the semis - courtesy of an extremely forgiving draw.

Prediction: Djokovic d. Hurkacz

Semifinal Predictions

Alcaraz def. Sinner in 5

Djokovic def. Rublev in 4

Final Prediction

Alcaraz def. Djokovic in 5

Thank you for reading this preview. For more information on Wimbledon, head to the 'Tournaments' page.

View the full draw here 👇 (via Tennis TV - Twitter)