Tsitsipas vs Ruud - Monte Carlo Masters Final Prediction

Two men arrived at the first clay court masters of the season desperate for a good run. These same two men now stand at the pinnacle of the Monte Carlo mountain. Will Casper Ruud finally earn his first Masters title, of which he has been knocking on the door for so long, or will Stefanos Tsitsipas further add to his already burgeoning love story with this event?

Tsitsipas vs Ruud

I think that this semifinal comes as a shock to most people. With the highly anticipated Sinner-Djokovic final now off the cards, the buzz that surrounded yesterday's semifinal matchups has almost evaporated as the tournament's last day approaches. But take nothing away from Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Although next to no one predicted a Tsitsipas-Ruud final and were already getting carried away by the prospect of the world's best two players meeting in the championship match, these finalists have put up a valiantly mighty effort to sink their semifinal opponents.

Let's start with Casper Ruud. The Norwegian was always a dark horse after Carlos Alcaraz's withdrawal leaving a gaping hole in the draw. However, nobody expected him to defeat top seed Djokovic, against whom he has a particularly troubling history (he hadn't won a single set in their five meetings prior to this!). Particularly concerning was Casper's unwillingness to be aggressive with his shot selection, and instead roll loopy forehands and backhands into court in a vain attempt to grind the 37-year-old down. But doing so is essentially a form of tactical suicide against someone so adept as Novak. With someone who has as little technical weaknesses as him, attacking these higher balls is child's play. So it was definitely pleasing to see Ruud incorporate more of a tactically aware blueprint this time around, consistently injecting more pace into both his wings. Not only did he dictate with his cannon-like forehand, but his eagerness to take multiple backhands down the line (generally considered his weaker shot) and finish the point early is what stood out to me. Of course, his serving was faultless too, and this, coupled with his heavy groundstrokes, pushed Djokovic further behind the baseline. Ruud mentioned that he'd been working on being more aggressive coming into the 2024 season, and it has definitely paid off, seeing him bag the best win of his career and climb back into the top ten already.

Stefanos Tsitsipas was pretty much discounted when coming into this match by tennis fans worldwide. Although he'd shown his pedigree on these courts time and time again, nobody (myself included) thought that it would be enough to dissect Sinner, especially with the backhand blues that the Greek had been experiencing as of late. But he protected that wing beautifully in their Saturday encounter. Not only did he fend off most of Sinner's attacks to that wing, but he also carved out many more opportunities with more tactically creative approaches, such as using dropshots to draw the second seed forward and exploit his net play (which perhaps isn't as refined as other areas of his game), and using clever inside-out forehands to open up the court and create unprecedented angles. This bit of skill was especially useful in the closing stages of the third set, where these angles that Stef created took advantage of Sinner's movement, which was compromised by cramps. But a really decisive moment, that could have potentially altered the outcome of the match altogether, came in the third set too. And yep - you guessed it - it was yet another shocking line call. This time, it was on Tsitsipas's second serve, which was a few millimetres out but was called in. Sinner hesitated, but made the return, eventually losing the point. If the Italian had won it, he would be up 4-1. Instead, soon enough, Stefanos broke back and physical niggles started to creep into Sinner's body. One can't help but wonder how pivotal that call was. Once again, it shows just how badly the clay courts need hawk-eye reviews too. Otherwise, the whole integrity of our sport remains compromised.

I believe Ruud will definitely use his more aggressive gameplan to his advantage. Employing firepower and substantial spin on both sides, the Norwegian will try to overpower the Greek's weaker one-hander and drag him out of position with heavy artillery. Although Ruud might win the battle from the baseline, it is Tsitsipas's more creative mind that ultimately takes the cake for me. I fear that Casper's game is too one-dimensional for someone as adroit as Stef, especially on these Monte Carlo courts. Tsitsipas will no doubt use numerous dropshots, open up more angles and approach the net seamlessly. Furthermore, the Greek has more experience at this venue, winning his two only Masters titles here. He's just too comfortable here at Monaco, and that's why I think he'll knock Ruud out.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3