Shanghai Masters - Round of 16 Predictions

An awesome day of tennis awaits in Shanghai, with plenty of big names slated in action. Medvedev and Tsitsipas clash in the 15th edition of their heated rivalry, while Shelton looks to spring a repeat upset of top seed Sinner. Alcaraz and Monfils promise to bring showmanship galore, with Fritz and Rune facing off once more after their thriller in Indian Wells.

Sinner vs Shelton

Sinner must surely be exhausted from his show-stopping run in Beijing just two weeks ago. After a comfy opener against an underpowered Taro Daniel, the World No. 1 was stretched to the limit against an inspired Etcheverry. The Argentine, mainly known for his clay-court brilliance, had played a 3-hour marathon against Van De Zandschulp in just his previous round. This match saw two players running on fumes. However, Sinner turned out to be fitter in the end, with his Iron Man stamina coming out on top as Etcheverry wilted in the final set. After seeing a cascade of break points come and go at 3-2 in the third set, Tomas's shoulders slumped as he was overwhelmed by both mental and physical fatigue, ultimately losing the next 2 games and the match. Meanwhile, Sinner lives to fight another day - but the Italian is looking vulnerable here.

Ben Shelton has not been made to work too hard here in China. After coming through a low-quality encounter with Denis Shapovalov, whose game was punctuated by horrid errors, he ran into clay-court specialist Carballes Baena. The Spaniard had just knocked out Arthur Fils - last week's Tokyo winner and the man who beat Shelton there - in two gritty tiebreaks. Although the tired Fils came up short, it was light work for Shelton against Roberto, who muscled his way through the match without facing too many issues.

These two have played each other four times. Their first meeting was, in fact, at this same venue same time last year. In a tight match, Shelton just edged through in a final set tiebreak against a Sinner who was exhausted from his triumph in Beijing the previous week - a situation similar to this one. However, that marked the start of the rise of Jannik Sinner, who went on a monster run following this loss. Since this loss to Shelton last year, the Italian has not lost to anyone outside the Top 20. In their next three meetings, Sinner cruised - although the American did show some resistance. Shelton has all the tools to unsettle Sinner - a booming serve, big forehand and unwavering aggression. However, this aggression often lacks margin, and his high-risk, high-reward playstyle can go very awry at times. And when it does go wrong, Sinner is exactly the kind of stable player to make Shelton pay. Overall, the 16th seed is just too rough around the edges to cause the upset.

Prediction: Sinner in 3

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev

What a unique rivalry this is turning out to be. Although Medvedev seems to have Tsitsipas's number, with a staggering 9 wins against the Greek's 4 in their head-to-head, the Greek does seem to come through as the underdog from time to time. Ultimately, it seems that this matchup hinges mostly on Medvedev's form; but although their meetings are largely on the Russian's racket, Tsitsipas has capitalised on Medvedev's rough patches in the past. And with each passing meeting, Stef seems closer and closer to the win. Let’s be honest - Medvedev is not playing his best tennis right now. In fact, his serve - a key weapon in his fruitful rivalry against Stefanos - is a shell of what it once was, and his ground game is as vulnerable as ever. The 6’6” man’s serving numbers have plummeted in recent times, which will expose him to Tsitsipas’s attacking brand of tennis and allow the Greek to get on the front foot. Back in the day, even when his serve wasn’t working, Daniil would often work Tsitsipas ragged from the baseline with unrelenting counterpunching. But now, with Medvedev’s groundstrokes leaking errors and his court-coverage suffering a real decline, he leaves the door open for Tsitsipas to implement his ultra-aggressiveness. He can blame the Shanghai balls as much as he wants; but the reality for the Russian is stark and cold.

Tsitsipas has been finding his feet again this week in Shanghai. After a straight setter against Kei Nishikori, who seems to be back and as dangerous as ever, the Greek dismantled Frenchman Muller in his following match. Although Japanese hero Nishikori was injured in his match, Stefanos showed great mental resilience to clinch a tight first-set breaker and eventually close out the win.

Medvedev has been weaker so far. He faced Thiago Seyboth Wild in a tense first-round encounter. The dynamic Brazilian upset him at Roland Garros last year, and although Wild has been disappointing in 2024, he made a match out of it nonetheless. Eventually, Medvedev progressed 7-5 7-5. In his next round, Daniil was in hot water once again against rising Italian Arnaldi. After being 4-1 up in the first set and having multiple break points for a 5-1 lead, Medvedev self-destructed and dropped the first set 7-5. However, testament to his mental fortitude, the World No. 5 regrouped and ground through the next two sets, pulling out a series of magical passing shots to break crucially in the decider. It was patchy tennis, but winning ugly is something the 2021 US Open champ is getting used to.

Tsitsipas and Medvedev last met in the Vienna semifinals last year. Daniil won, but his shakiness saw Stefanos almost win the second-set tiebreaker. Medvedev is the more reliable player here, and if his serve starts firing again on these quick Shanghai courts, he will trouble the Greek.

Prediction: Medvedev in 3

Alcaraz vs Monfils

Carlos Alcaraz is reigning supreme once more. In a dismal North American hardcourt swing following a taxing run at the Olympics, the Spaniard crashed out in Rounds 1 and 2 of the Cincinnati and the US Open respectively. However, the third seed found his spark again in Beijing, and after a ruthless path of destruction to the final, put on a show against World No. 1 Sinner in the match of the year so far. Although Sinner was the steadier player in that final, Alcaraz experienced higher highs, eventually grabbing the title in a final set tiebreaker. Particularly astonishing was the fact that Alcaraz was down 3-0 in the the third set breaker, but managed to win 7 points on the trot in breathtaking fashion. Now, he has carried that trophy-winning form into Shanghai, striking his forehand with more venom and flatness that usual. He comes into this meeting with strong outings against home hopes Jerry Shang and Yibing Wu. Shang proved no match for the 4-time Grand Slam champ’s power in the first round, as he was run knackered by Alcaraz’s weight of shot. Wu, however, who had just come back from injury, proved to be a much tougher opponent. In a super-competitive first set, the Chinese matched Carlos’s bruising ballstriking from the baseline, hitting one of the fastest backhands of the year in the process. However, he just fell short, losing the tiebreak 7-5 and slipping up in the second.

Meanwhile, Gael Monfils has been steady so far. After a no-nonsense performance against Dzumhur in his opener, he came through a deciding set against Baez in his second round. The Frenchman faced his toughest foe yet in compatriot and Tokyo finalist Humbert in the Round of 32. Monfils extracted one too many errors from the lefty’s racket in the first set, winning a tiebreak that was decided by razor-thin margins. Humbert responded by winning the second; however, suffered an injury to the leg in the third set. With his movement compromised, Monfils pounced, winning the last 6-1. However, Gael seemed to have his fair share of injury struggles too, hunching over and clutching his knee towards the closing stages. This isn’t a good sign for his upcoming match against the third seed.

Their last match was in Cincinnati, which Monfils shockingly won. However, Alcaraz self-admittedly played one of the worst matches of his life that day, and even smashed his very first racket during the process. The Spaniard was burnt out from a gruelling schedule, playing Wimbledon and the Olympics back to back. This time, I am predicting this match to be much like their one earlier this year in Miami, which Alcaraz won comfortably. Although Monfils will bring bags of entertainment to the table, Carlos will boss him around the court until his legs give out.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 2

Paul vs Machac

Paul and Machac have two very similar gamestyles. While not always packing the most punch on their strokes, these two have almost always found a way to patiently outfox and outcraft their opponents. In fact, they met in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago, and while it was a thrilling tussle, Machac eked out the victory. However, it was the American who raced out of the blocks first, taking a commanding lead by winning the first set 6-2. Although he dropped the next set, he had the encounter in a chokehold after wrestling control of a 3-0 in the decider. Unfortunately for him, his serve let him down, as Machac's backhand caught fire and he prevailed in a final set tiebreak.

Tommy Paul put up an imperious display against Fabio Fognini in the Round of 64. Although the Italian can be very dangerous on his day, Tommy brushed him aside for the loss of only four games. It was in his next round, however, that the American No. 2 pulled a rabbit out of the hat, pulling off a stunning escape reminiscent of Houdini himself. Down a set and 5-1 to fiery lefty Tabilo, Paul staved off five match points before taking the second set 7-6. In the final set, Tabilo crumbled, with Paul keeping his swinging strokes at bay and hanging tough to get the job done. It was delight for Paul, but for Alejandro, it was yet another devastating loss that he had snatched from the jaws of victory.

Machac faced a similar story in his round one match. Up against the utter unpredictability of one of most talented players on tour, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the Czech found himself down a 6-1 first set. Although he narrowly grabbed the second set breaker, he was down a break in the third. Ultimately, like Tabilo, Fokina wavered mentally, and Machac capitalised. Tomas then rolled through his next match against Vukic.

Except long, patient rallies in this meeting. Although Machac will try to overpower Paul with his backhand, the American has a few tricks up his sleeve with his deft touch and nimbleness. I am backing Paul and his experience on the big stage to shine here.

Prediction: Paul in 3

Mensik vs Dimitrov

After an authoritative start to the year, Jakub Mensik has slowly tapered off. However, he seems to be bringing the results again this week in Asia. After a nice win against Pedro Martinez in his opener, Mensik sent the defending Shanghai finalist and sixth seed Andrey Rublev packing for the second straight time this year, recovering from a break down in the third set. This blockbuster of a match was characterised by thunderous groundstrokes and serves, witht the sound of the ball coming off the racket like dynamite exploding. Ultimately, however, it was the teenager's rock-solid backhand that saved the day. In the Round of 32, he held off Shevchenko, who upset Cerundolo in his previous round. Although Mensik dropped the second set tiebreak after a dominant first set, he quickly recouped and reasserted himself to grab the dub.

Grigor Dimitrov is already looking back to this best after a lengthy period of injury. After retiring mid-match in his US Open semifinal against Tiafoe, the Bulgarian was out on the sidelines for a while. Although he made a brief appearance at the iconic black courts of the Laver Cup, he played through considerable pain in his match against Tabilo and was off on the bench for the rest of the event. Now, after withdrawing from Beijing, Grigor is looking as fit and fresh as ever. He got back into the competitive swing of things after opening against Zizou Bergs in a three-setter. Then, although many expected him to struggle against Montreal champ and Djokovic-conqueror Alexei Popyrin, especially after falling to him in Canada after having multiple match points, the Bulgarian breezed through in straights. His lively brand of tennis has been accentuated by clean, crisp groundstrokes on this fast Shanghai surface.

These two had their first and only meeting in Madrid earlier in 2024. Mensik won that match, and although it went the distance, looked in control for large portions of it. His missile of a serve really irked the Bulgarian on the backhand return, and the Czech's forehand caused Grigor a lot of headaches on the altitudinal clay. However, that was on Dimitrov's least preferred surface, and with the renewed confidence that he has seemed to find, the 33-year-old should pull through this encounter.

Prediction: Dimitrov in 3

Fritz vs Rune

This should be a treat for us tennis fans. With Holger Rune rediscovering some form towards the tail end of the year and Fritz being his usual, consistent best, except this match to deliver. Holger Rune had a decent outing in Tokyo last week, falling at the hands of eventual champion Arthur Fils in the semifinals in two, down-to-the-wire tiebreaks. He has translated some of that great tennis here, finding some patience along the way. In his first round against the ever-dangerous Berrettini, who has one of the best win percentages this year, patience was definitely the key. After losing the first set and making some uncharacteristic errors, the Dane gained rhythm in the second, working the ball with oodles of shape, height and spin into the Berrettini backhand. Eventually, the Italian succumbed, with Holger's more measured strategy paying dividends. He repeated this blueprint in his following meeting with dark horse Jiri Lehecka, caressing the ball and varying his spins and heights instead of the mindless slapping that he does so often. Once again, it proved fruitful, resulting in a cozy victory.

Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, was most definitely taking by surprise as he opened his campaign against the bold lefty Terence Atmane. The journeyman possessed plenty of French flair, and showed just why brutal groundstrokes can be so hard to deal with. In the end, it was the American's reliability from the baseline that came out on top. He cruised in his subsequent match against Yosuke Watanuki, another player who was sidelined for a lengthy period of time with injury woes. Although he had picked up a couple of good wins in Shanghai, including over the red-hot Nakashima, his injuries seemed to surface again as Fritz steamrolled.

Rune and Fritz have split both their H2H meetings so far. Last year in Miami, the temperamental Dane put up an erratic display, and his forehand fell flat as Fritz's solidness overwhelmed him. This year, they took to the court in Indian Wells, and it was looking like history would repeat itself. After a sluggish start, Rune faced match point at 4-5 in the second set. This time, however, he saved it with a daring second serve, and never looked back. The youngster eased himself into a nice groove, finding his range and timing on the forehand and blazing through the second set tiebreaker, before triumphing in the last set 6-3. After a clutch match point save, Holger put forth a dazzling display in the Californian desert. I feel that this match will have the same tone to it. While Rune will struggle to find the court at times, the maturity he has shown this week will come to the rescue. He has more potential than Fritz, and once his game clicks, his ceiling will be too high for the American to deal with.

Prediction: Rune in 3

Safiullin vs Djokovic

Roman Safiullin had a topsy-turvy win over 13th seed Frances Tiafoe that was overshadowed by controversy on American's part. After receiving his third time violation of the day and consequently a loss of first serve, Tiafoe lost the next two points from 5-5 in the third set breaker. At the end of the match, Frances cursed the umpire repeatedly with some very colourful language, and should be expecting a hefty fine for his behaviour. It was a rollercoaster match, with Tiafoe leading 7-5, 2-0 and then Safiullin leading 5-2 in the final set before it was dragged to a tiebreak. Nevertheless, the Russian did extremely well to block out any distractions that Tiafoe may have caused with his tantrums. In addition, Roman also posted comfortable wins over Zhukayev and the capricious 23rd seed Alexander Bublik to cap off his week.

Novak Djokovic took to court for the first time since his devastating loss to Alexei Popyrin at the US Open this week in Shanghai. Although he was rusty in his campaign-starter against rising star Michelsen, being stretched to 11-9 in the second set tiebreaker, he was absolutely merciless against another prospect that is Flavio Cobolli. Cobolli wore out one of the greats in Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 64. The Italian has been making waves on tour with his sonic forehand, but was put to shame on Saturday with a 6-1, 6-2 drubbing by Novak, whose scary speed on the forehand was reminiscent of his Turin triumph late last year.

It seems that Djokovic is hungry for success again, and when he is in this mood, his ballstriking and accuracy is just leagues above the likes of Safiullin.

Prediction: Djokovic in 2

Zverev vs Goffin

Alexander Zverev was pushed to breaking point against Tallon Griekspoor. As always is the story with the Dutchman, he gave the World No. 2 plenty to think about yesterday. However, in the most critical moments, he withered - a trait not so uncharacteristic of him. The last few times they have played, Tallon has come excruciatingly close to victory - but not close enough. In Indian Wells earlier this year, Griekspoor had a whole host of set points in the first set before losing it 9-7 in the tiebreak. Zverev roared, Griekspoor obliterated his racket to smithereens, and the rest was history. They then took to court against each other on the clay of Roland Garros. Tallon played a superb match, firing on all cylinders and domineering his way to a 4-1 double break lead in the deciding set. However, with the finish line in sight, the Dutchman once again crumbled, with Zverev escaping in a super tiebreak. Before their match yesterday in Shanghai, there was much speculation as to whether Griekspoor would learn from his mistakes. Well, apparently not. Again, the unseeded Griekspoor came agonisingly close to the win, and again, he faltered at the last second. The first. which Zverev nabbed in a thrilling tiebreaker, must've given the Dutchman a harrowing bout of PTSD - however, much to viewers' surprise, he regathered his thoughts and steered clinically to a 5-0 lead in the second. This time, he wasn't going to let the weight of his missed opportunities get to him. Although the second seed managed to recover one break, Griekspoor closed it out confidently 6-2. The third set was mostly about the German. He was the first to smell victory, and carved out seven match points. But Griekspoor, willed on by the Chinese crowd, saved each one of them with brilliant and fearless serving. It seemed that he was learning his lesson. But then came the inevitable. When the going got tough, Tallon did not get going. Instead, he dumped a routine volley into the net at the start of the deciding breaker. Zverev sprinted to a 6-2 lead, but he had some hiccups of his own at this point - including an untimely double fault - and the Dutchman hung tight to make it 6-5. On match point, the predictable occurred: with Griekspoor taking control of the point and receiving a simple putaway volley, he hit it into the net. While Zverev breathed a sigh of relief, Griekspoor held his head in his hands in dismay. Although both men had won the same number of points - 110 - by the end of the match, it was those two botched volleys that costed the Dutchman.

David Goffin is coming into this match experiencing a resurgence of sorts. After poor outings in ATP level tournaments for the last two years, the Belgian seems to be well past his prime. But this week, he has reminded the tennis world just how good of a player he can be; what he lacks in pure power, he makes up for skillful counterpunching, made possible by one of the world's best backhands. Unfortunately, although his best days may well be behind him, he still has a lot left in the tank, and that is evident by the streak he's having at the moment. After blitzing through the tricky James Duckworth in Round 1, David came up against the talented Musetti, who was in fine form after really making his mark on the natural surfaces - clay and grass - earlier in the year. However, his hardcourt level still remains an area to be developed, and after redlining in the first set and going 6-1 up, Goffin took second set tiebreak in the nick of the time and finished strong. Similarly, the Belgian played his way into tempo in his following match, where he was breadsticked by Giron in the opening set, but recovered adeptly to claim the win, getting better as the match went on.

If this match happened a few years ago, I may have given Goffin the advantage. However, Zverev is a touch too far ahead of David nowadays. Although the Belgian can hang with him if he gets timid, once Sascha starts swinging freely, it should be light work.

Prediction: Zverev in 2