Rome Masters - Semifinal Predictions

2017 champion Alexander Zverev battles red-hot Alejandro Tabilo, who is seeking to extend his fairytale run all the way.

Zverev vs Tabilo

What a week Alejandro Tabilo is having. After sending the World Number 1 Djokovic packing for the loss of just 5 games, the Chilean has not let the weight of the moment get to his head; instead, he's translated that level into his next two matches. Coming through a nailbiting contest against Khachanov, which required two tiebreakers (the latter of which ended 12-10), he then trumped another surprise quarterfinalist Zhizhen Zhang in two emphatic sets. Now, he is into the biggest match of his life, and is seeming to find his best tennis at exactly the right time. The fiery Chilean has not dropped a set all tournament, and his blazing forehand has sent his South American fans into a feverish frenzy. He is also projected to reach a new career high ranking of 25. After ploughing through the field with ease, can Alejandro overcome his toughest challenge yet?

The time is ripe for Alexander Zverev to win his first Masters title since 2021. A trophy here in Italy would serve as a hallmark in his career considering the injury struggles he's been through in the last two years. With Alcaraz and Sinner injured and Djokovic, Medvedev and Tsitsipas upset, the path is clear for the opportunity of a lifetime. And with Roland Garros just a few days away, the highest seed left in the Roman draw is primed to capitalise. As always, his serve has been impeccable this week, and he is even hitting his forehand with more authority and purpose than usual. Perhaps the disappointment of his Madrid campaign has added fuel to the fire. After an unflinching performance against Taylor Fritz last round, who is seeming to develop a certain liking for the surface, Zverev remains in domineering form.

This match is an afternoon session, which definitely suits Tabilo more. The lively conditions and scorching temperatures will allow the Chilean to dictate with his forehand and breach the defence of the German. However, I think this is a step too far for Tabilo; although he beat an out-of-sorts Djokovic in the second round, Zverev will surely bring more to the table. Right now, the calibre of Alexander's consistency will be too much for Tabilo to handle.

Prediction: Zverev in 2

Jarry vs Paul

Wow. Nicolas Jarry has left the tennis community in awe after triumphing against 6th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters. It was an inspiring, gritty showdown that pushed the Chilean and his boisterous supporters in the stands to the edge. Down a set and staring down three break points at 3-3, 0-40, Nicolas showed great mental resilience and saved them all in truly fearless fashion. After clinching the second set and releasing a primal roar that matched the intensity of the crowd, he immediately found himself in choppy waters again. But he broke straight back, and after a chain of bruising groundstrokes that battered the Tsitsipas backhand, served the match out. Contrary to popular thought, the the slowness of Roman clay wasn’t enough to shield the shortcomings of Stef’s backhand, and Jarry’s raw power was simply too much for the Greek to withstand. The Chilean now joins his compatriot Tabilo in the semifinals (the first time two Chileans are in the semis of a Masters 1000), and lengthens his H2H lead over Tsitsipas to 4-2.

Tommy Paul is also breaking new ground this week. The American reached his third Masters 1000 semifinal with a victory over Hurkacz, but it’s his first on clay. It was a scratchy, near-3-hour dogfight that had thirteen breaks of serve (!) peppered throughout it. Although neither of them played their best tennis, Paul ultimately showed more determination to scrap it out. In a heart-stopping final game that lasted a colossal fifteen minutes, Hurkacz saw multiple break points come and go before Tommy finally sealed it, backing up his upset of Medvedev beautifully.

This encounter is very tough to call. Stylistically, this matchup sees two very different styles of tennis; Paul being the more patient, foxy and light-footed player while Jarry fills the role of the thumping, all-guns-blazing aggressor. This is a night session, and the deadened conditions will make it harder for the Chilean to penetrate TP’s expertise from the baseline. However, egged on by a vocal crowd, I believe Jarry can live up to occasion and wrestle his way to the final.

Prediction: Jarry in 3