Rome Masters - Quarterfinal (Day 2) Predictions

Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas both take to Centre Court and continue on their collision course here at the Foro Italico.

Hurkacz vs Paul

Tommy Paul put up one of the performances of his career last round, breezing past defending champion Medvedev in just 1 hour and 13 minutes. After racing through the opening set 6-1, in a fashion and scoreline that was eerily reminiscent of the pair's encounter in Indian Wells earlier this year, Paul did not put his foot on the brakes. Although he was broken early in the second set, Medvedev's serving woes continued as he was promptly broken back and the American swiftly clinched victory in fine style. Even though the Russian was uncharacteristically patchy, with a whopping 22 unforced errors to his name, it was Paul's front-foot tennis, garnished with net-rushing and taking the ball super early, that propelled him towards the finish line. Before this week, Tommy Paul was not necessarily a name you would associate with clay; but with Roland Garros just around the corner, the World Number 16 has established himself as one to look out for.

Hubert Hurkacz has also done more of the same, but in more authoritative style, one could argue. The seventh seed has followed his maiden title on the dirt in Estoril with a giant-killing run here in the Italian capital. The Pole has toppled a series of experienced clay-court specialists, most notably abbreviating 10-time champion Rafael Nadal's farewell tour in a ruthless manner. Then, he flaunted his near-invincibility in tiebreaks, consecutively defeating Argentinians Tomas Etcheverry and coming back from a set and a break down against Sebastian Baez to reach the quarters.

I feel like Hurkacz has the slight edge here. Even though he looked shaky against Baez in the Round of 16, Tommy Paul is far less comfortable and accomplished on the clay. Furthermore, Hurkacz being the standout server of 2024, will expose the American's return. The Pole's flourishing credibility on the surface means he has this one in the bag.

Prediction: Hurkacz in 3

Tsitsipas vs Jarry

After a shockingly brief outing in Madrid, Stefanos Tsitsipas looks more at home here in Rome. Again, this disparity in results illustrates the organic strengths and weaknesses of the Tsitsipas game perfectly; although more likely to be blown off court in Madrid due to the altitude, like we saw in Thiago Monteiro's stunning upset of the Greek, the slower clay simply hides his vulnerabilities better. Although this is no Monte-Carlo, the ball travels slow enough to permit him more time on that notorious backhand and allow him to unleash his more creative side. A thrilling win over Struff served as a much-needed confidence booster, and Stefanos has been routine in dismissing his other opponents so far this week. This included a thrashing of Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals for the loss of just three games, showing us all just why he has such a healthy relationship with the European clay-court swing.

Nicolas Jarry, on the other hand, was not having such a good start to his clay-court campaign. With first-round losses in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid, the Chilean was desperately in need of some momentum when he arrived in Italy. Luckily, he has found just that. After tussling with home hopes Arnaldi and Napolitano in his opening two rounds, he navigated past Alexandre Muller, who conquered last week's Madrid champion Rublev, without any fuss. The big man now finds himself in his second Masters 1000 quarterfinal and his first on clay.

If this battle took place on a fast hard court or a grass court, I would side with Nicolas because of how much damage he can deal with that explosive serve + forehand combination. However, the Roman clay gives Tsitsipas a clear advantage, and the pair's meeting in Monte-Carlo last year, which the Greek won in straight sets, only stands testament to this. I believe that Stefanos will also pull the dropshot out of his arsenal to exploit his 6'7" adversary's movement. And with the Chilean's serve all but nullified, he will find it hard to finish points.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2