Paris Masters - Quarterfinal Predictions

The benefit of the one-week masters is glaringly obvious, as this week has brought us an exciting and unpredictable showing of indoor tennis, with some quality quarterfinal matchups slated. Tsitsipas and Zverev butt heads for the 16th time in their intriguing rivalry, while former Paris champs Khachanov and Rune are also in action. De Minaur and Dimitrov both make their final pushes for Turin as Humbert looks to light things up for his home crowd.

Zverev vs Tsitsipas

At the moment, Tsitsipas only seems to play well at two venues in the world: the Monte Carlo Country Club, where he has captured titles in three of the last four editions, and the Accor Arena in Paris, Bercy, where he has made three consecutive semi-finals. Although on paper, none would expect indoor tennis to be his forte, the slow, deadened surface of the Paris Masters has always bought him that extra time he needs to really find his game (namely the backhand). However, although there has been chatter about the court speed being much, much faster this year, the Greek has done well to adapt. He was scratchy in his opening round against Carballes Baena, dropping the first set but regrouping to clinch victory and hit through the Spaniard's dogged defences. Although many expected him to be troubled by the weapons of Alejandro Tabilo, a big-serving lefty who has been in some fine form this year, it was a comfy match for Stef. He overwhelmed the Chilean with clean, domineering ballstriking. He carried this authority into his next match against Francisco Cerundolo. The Argentine is one of the most dynamic players on tour, and is almost unplayable when his forehand is firing. There were times when Tsitsipas looked helpless, especially during the first set tiebreak as Cerundolo raced to a 7-1 finish. But eventually the pressure told, and errors leaked from the Cerundolo racquet as the Greek capitalised and won 6-2 in the third. These two also faced off last week in Basel, where Tsitsipas just squeezed through in a final set breaker. This loss will definitely sting Francisco.

Zverev has been a bit more clinical this week in Bercy. After clashing with Tallon Griekspoor for the umpteenth time and coming through yet another tiebreak, he zoomed to the finish line with the Dutchman cursing his draw luck. The third seed then did well to gain revenge over home-favourite Arthur Fils from their rollercoaster in Hamburg earlier this year. Although Fils has been in some red-hot form himself, clubbing his forehand, his flame was snuffed out by Zverev and his ruthless serving. However, although Zverev did get the victory in three, he hit only one forehand winner in the entire match. This is an extremely concerning stat and he will need to improve this if he wishes to progress further in Paris.

Although Tsitsipas boasts a 10-5 H2H record over Zverev, the stories of their meetings have been largely surface-dependent. If the towering German's serve - which stands as the main weapon in his arsenal - is nullified by a slow court-speed, then the Greek has all the time in the world to let his creativity loose. This is evidenced by last year's outcome, when these two met at this very event in the Round of 16, only for Tsitsipas to triumph in straight sets. However, word on the street this year has been that the courts are significantly faster, and I trust this word. The conditions should favour Sascha to seal a semifinal berth.

Prediction: Zverev in 3

Rune vs De Minaur

Holger Rune certainly loves the Paris Indoors. With his win over Arthur Cazaux, who got the better of him at the Australian Open earlier this year, he improves to an 11-1 lifetime record at Bercy. His only loss came at the hands of eventual champion Novak Djokovic at the quarterfinal stage last year, and in fact, he beat Novak in the final in 2022 to clinch his first and only Masters title at just 19 years of age. It is safe to say that the indoor conditions here at the French capital suit his game to a tee; an perfect mix of slow and fast that boosts his weaponry without leaving him rushed. While the Dane struggles on outdoor hard, his best results have come on clay and indoor, with Paris being his favourite destination on the ATP tour. His run to the trophy in 2022 was nothing short of exceptional, where he saved match points in a spicy first-round encounter against Wawrinka before toppling top-ten seeds left, right and centre - including World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and the great Djokovic - to win the tournament. After making light work in his first two rounds of Arnaldi and Bublik, two ever-dangerous opponents, he ran into an old nemesis in Cazaux, who cut his Australian Open run short this year. Cazaux's entire career has been plagued by injury, so his outstanding performance against Rune that day was just an indicator of what potential this rising star had in store. Although he didn't post many notable results after that, he has resurfaced in his home country this week. In fact, the Frenchman - a lucky loser who upset Ben Shelton in stunning fashion just previously - had an overwhelmingly positive record against Holger including matches dating back to futures and junior tournaments. But although he dropped the opening set, Rune regrouped quickly and held Arthur's booming serve and the raucous French crowd at bay to advance.

Meanwhile, De Minaur has reminded the tennis world that he is one of the most hardworking players on tour. After a serious injury at Wimbledon, the Aussie was out of action for a couple of months before returning. Although he hasn't been playing his best tennis as of late, with his injury still hindering his movement, he has been doing everything in his power to qualify for Turin in his most impressive season yet, highlighting his never-say-die mentality. This week, he has turned things around brilliantly and has come within touching distance of securing a spot at the Nitto ATP Finals. He has bested two tame ballstrikers in Navone and Kecmanovic before running into Jack Draper, a man in scary form. The Brit has been playing mammoth tennis for the last couple of weeks, grabbing his first ATP 500 title in Vienna and upsetting the now-blonde Taylor Fritz in his last round. However, he is known to run out of steam, and De Minaur pounced as Draper fizzled out and succumbed to the stress of his busy schedule.

Overall, this will be a baseline-heavy matchup with lots of quality coming from both wings. Although Rune won the pair's first two meetings, the Aussie has responded strongly by winning the last two. However, Alex still doesn't seem to be at his best since injury. I am siding with Holger here because of his love for this venue.

Prediction: Rune in 3

Humbert vs Thompson

Jordan Thompson is putting a nice season together for himself in 2024. After winning his maiden title at Los Cabos in February and reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam for just the second time at the US Open, the gritty Aussie now finds himself in his first-ever Masters 1000 quarterfinal. He has displayed some determined tennis this week by taking out Pedro Martinez in his opening round before dumping 7th seed and major Turin contender Casper Ruud out of the tournament. Jordan certainly seems to have the Norwegian's number on hard courts, flaunting a 3-0 record against Casper this year on the surface. With his deft net-play and high tennis IQ, the Aussie pinned Ruud to his backhand on Tuesday before closing the net and taking advantage of Ruud's subpar passing shots. For Ruud, it is more disappointment; although he won his first title at ATP 500 level in Barcelona, his transition to hard courts has been abysmal, and his spinny groundstrokes have been proven too easy to penetrate. He has now lost the last 5 of his 6 matches, but seeks to grab a spot at Turin next week in Metz. In his following match, Thompson admittedly played some scrappy tennis against Frenchman Mannarino. Although egged on by the vocal audience, Adrian put on a shocking performance by hitting just 9 winners to a whopping 44 unforced errors. In truth, it was a cagey performance from both. In fact, Mannarino did well to make the scoreline as close as it was. Will Thompson raise his level against another Frenchman, Ugo Humbert, next?

After a flawless 6-0 record in ATP finals, losing his first one left Ugo Humbert dispirited in his next two events. With the streak broken, the lefty fell to Monfils in Shanghai and Goffin in Basel in a thrilling final set tiebreak. Although these veterans are no pushovers, Humbert's ceiling is far higher than what he has showed in these last two events. However, he has turned the tables extremely well here at home in Bercy. After a solid win over the steady dark horse Nakashima and destroying Giron, Humbert came up against second seed Alcaraz. They had met earlier this year during the Spaniard's title run to a second Wimbledon, and although Ugo fell just short, he made it a hell of a match. One thing that stood out on the grass, however, was the calibre of the Frenchman's returns, and boy did he bring it here to Paris. With flat, deep returns landing right at Carlos's feet and some impossible passing shots, he rode the electric wave of the football-like atmosphere to secure the biggest win of his life. The sequence of shots he hit at 5-5 in the decider was insane. Now, he is looking like a strong threat for the the title.

Ultimately, this should be cozy for Humbert. Thompson played nervous tennis against Mannarino but was let off the hook by the Frenchman's incompetencies. Moreover, the Aussie was getting increasingly rattled by the French crowd and had a few outbursts too. This spells trouble for Jordan, and his counterpunching will be too ineffective for Humbert's barrage of aggression.

Prediction: Humbert in 2

Dimitrov vs Khachanov

Karen Khachanov has also turned things around in the last three weeks. Known for his unwavering consistency, the Russian had been in a bad slump over the past few months. After reaching back-to-back Slam semifinals in 2022/23, the Russian seemed to finally be reaching the the heights that he did back in 2018, when he won this very title in Paris by routing Djokovic in the final. However, things reached a low point at the French Open this year, where he blew a two-sets-to-love lead to journeyman Josef Kovalik. Since then, he picked up an injury, and was far from his best going into the Almaty Open. However, he regained some confidence by lifting the trophy there. The next week, he also reached the final in Vienna, posting commanding results over Matteo Berrettini and Alex de Minaur, before falling short to the red-hot Draper. Nonetheless, he seems to have recaptured his reliable form. Now, in Paris, he is looking dangerous for a title repeat. Although he struggled against O'Connell in his first round, he has eased his way into rhythm by wearing down the likes of Mpetshi Perricard, last week's Basel winner, and Popyrin. Against Perricard, the Russian only dropped two (!) points on return in Set 1, but somehow ended up on the losing side of things. However, after the Frenchman's famous serve faltered, Khachanov slowly but surely asserted himself in the baseline exchanges, leaving GMP ragged.

Grigor Dimitrov, meanwhile, has been shaky at the French capital so far. After a marathon first-round against a determined Etcheverry, who made him earn every point, Dimitrov played yet another lungbuster against home-hope Rinderknech. Down 5-4 in the final set-tiebreak with Arthur serving, the Bulgarian produced a fearless few points before sprinting to the finish line. Later, Grigor revealed that he has been struggling with an illness this week. Although his tennis has been patchy and he has been under-the-weather, Dimitrov has found just enough to overcome his opponents with experience. In order to remain in contention for the ATP Finals, Dimitrov needs to make the final here at Bercy. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening.

Unlike his previous adversaries, Khachanov is one of the most resilient men on tour. He will prolong Dimitrov's suffering as much as possible, drawing the veteran into long, taxing rallies and grinding him down. How much will Grigor have left in the tank after two lengthy matches already? Although Khachanov has never won a match against the Bulgarian and is a combined 1-17 against opponents with one-handed backhands, this is where he could flip the script. Grigor’s slice will surely unsettle Khachanov and his extreme Western forehand grip, but with Dimitrov's fitness compromised and his illness leeching his stamina, Khachanov is exactly the type of rock-solid opponent who could turn things into a war of attrition.

Prediction: Khachanov in 3