Monte Carlo Masters - Round of 16 Predictions

Third-round action at the Monte Carlo Country Club has some tasty matchups in store, as long-time rivals Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitipas clash once more, and Lorenzo Musetti looks to repeat his blockbuster upset of Novak Djokovic here.

De Minaur vs Popryin

Alex de Minaur loves dismantling veterans here on the Monte Carlo clay. Last year, he defeated Andy Murray handily in the first round but crashed out in the second. However, the Aussie has gone one better this time around, beating 39-year-old Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-0 and then backing up this demolition with a comeback win against Tallon Griekspoor. Although clay is by far his worst surface, it seems that the dirt really complements his grinding playstyle, and he has managed to wear down his more aged opposition who can't hit through him on these ultra-slow courts. Wawrinka, once a player with weapons galore, was struggling to make any impact on the De Minaur defence due to the court speed simply blunting his aggression. Ultimately, De Minaur tired him out and the second set was unfortunately a bit of a formality. Right now, the Aussie is primed to make a first Masters 1000 quarterfinal on clay.

His compatriot Alexei Popyrin stands as a formidable force on the other side of the net. Popyrin put up a stellar performance to take down defending champion Andrey Rublev in straight sets, and the slower clay of Monte Carlo gives him more time to set up his deadly forehand. Popyrin also possesses the brute power required to hit through these slow courts, and although his serve effectiveness is reduced quite a bit, he can really bludgeon his groundstrokes when needed. I'm trusting Alexei to be a bit too much for De Minaur to handle.

Prediction: Popyrin in 3

Medvedev vs Khachanov

Daniil Medvedev had some characteristic lapses of concentration in his first-round match against Gael Monfils, but ultimately came through easily. It wasn't much of a test though, as the experienced Frenchman made a whopping 41 unforced errors to hand him the match. Although the 4th seed lost his temper with the linesmen and umpire over a couple of dodgy line calls, he refocused in the end to close it out.

Khachanov comes fresh off a solid win against Francisco Cerundolo. Shockingly, the towering Russian only has a 39-37 win-loss record on best-of-three ATP events on clay, which is surprising considering the amount of topspin he uses on his forehand with the extreme western grip. I feel like he has the potential to excel on this surface, although his movement is a tad scrappy. Khachanov has taken a set off Medvedev the last two times they have played, in Miami and Vienna, but has just fallen short on both occasions. I feel like this will happen again. While Karen may snag a set, it's hard to see him overcome Daniil's prowess from the baseline.

Prediction: Medvedev in 3

Tsitsipas vs Zverev

We have an intriguing lock of horns on our hands here. These two have faced off against each other 14 times, with the Greek leading the head-to-head 9-5. This is definitely a seasoned rivalry between two players who were once considered Next Gen stars. While Tsitsipas has an aggressive game and transitions seamlessly to the net, adding variety with dropshots, Zverev is a more steady baseliner with loopy, spinnier strokes. Fascinatingly, both of their backhands are worlds apart in terms of quality; the German's is impenetrable and one of the best in the game, while the Greek is rather timid with his one-hander and is prone to mistiming it. Puzzlingly, his slice is also subpar - something that is usually uncharacteristic of a one-hander - and he barely chips any returns, a flaw which has been pivotal in his matchup against the 6'6" Zverev.

However, this is the beauty of surfaces in tennis: although Zverev would blow Tsitsipas away with big, booming serves to his backhand on a fast hard court, the extremely slow clay of Monte Carlo allows the Greek to mask the vulnerabilities of his weaker wing. The slow court-speed of this tournament buys Stefanos oodles of time to hit his backhand cleaner and harder. Their head-to-head is a testament of this translation across surfaces; Zverev won their most recent meeting on the lightning-quick courts of Australia, while Tsitsipas clinched the one before that on the grittier, indoor courts of Paris. Another perfect example of this was in in 2022, when they faced off three times on clay. Unsurprisingly, Tsitsipas triumphed in both Monte Carlo and Rome, while Zverev stood tall in Madrid (a clay court that doesn't really act like a clay court, with its high altitude rewarding big servers and big hitters immensely).

It's no surprise that Court Rainier III is Tsitsipas's favourite court in the world, where he has won his only two Masters titles. In his previous round, the Greek played perhaps his best match of the last few years by beating Argentine Tomas Etcheverry 6-1, 6-0. After being broken in the very first game of the match, Stefanos did not lose a single game after that. It truly was a masterclass. While many expected Etcheverry to beat Stefanos, this result really highlights just how good he is on surfaces like this. Because of this, I'm picking Tsitsipas to win in this surface-spanning clash of styles.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3

Djokovic vs Musetti

Although the older man leads their head-to-head record 2-1, Djokovic and Musetti are tied on the number of sets played on clay: 4-4. This includes Djokovic's colossal comeback from two-sets-to-love down against the flashy Italian in the French Open 2021, as well as Musetti's upset same time last year against the World No. 1. Historically, Novak struggles a lot in Monte Carlo. The Serb has failed to get past the quarterfinal stage of this event since winning it in 2015, and his suffering has been accentuated by shocking losses to the likes of Vesely, Evans, and Davidovich Fokina. This often, however, hasn't been a sign of things to come; Djokovic has been a master at slowly finding his form through the clay season, gradually building up and peaking at exactly the right time (usually just in time for Roland Garros).

Unfortunately for Musetti, he remains erratic. Although he’s found a slight bit of form in 2024 with some good wins, he is still too patchy to string together any consistency. His groundstrokes can be shaky, and his decision-making and shot-selection has landed him in hot water too often. Djokovic is looking clinical so far here with a 6-1, 6-2 crushing of Roman Safiullin. It isn’t much to draw from, but right now it looks like the top seed is hungry for redemption after an underwhelming season so far (by his lofty standards). Revenge on Musetti is exactly what he is looking for to rekindle his flame.

Prediction: Djokovic in 2

Struff vs Sinner

Jan-Lennard Struff was 6-1, 5-2 down against Sebastian Baez in the first round here, but mounted a significant comeback to edge out the Argentine 1-6, 7-6, 6-2. He then followed up with a convincing victory against the ever-dangerous Borna Coric. Struff is always a dark horse in these tournaments, and can take the racquet out of anyone’s hands. He had an amazing run to the quarterfinals here last year before an inspiring appearance in the Madrid final as a lucky loser. His deft touch, combined with his thunderous forehand and textbook volleys, can wreak havoc on any day.

Before this tournament started, there some minor question marks about how well Jannik Sinner could translate his performance from the early-season hard courts to the red dirt. Although I feel like he hasn’t brushed aside those doubts entirely, he has definitely stamped authority in his opening round. Dispatching Sebastian Korda 6-1, 6-2, the Italian made a strong start to his Monte Carlo campaign. Don’t be fooled though: Korda isn’t much of an indicator of a player’s form due to how many errors he makes. I believe that Struff will be a much more worthy litmus test for Jannik in these conditions. However, Sinner should progress pretty easily. These two faced off a few weeks ago in Indian Wells, with Sinner breezing through. Expect this result to be similar.

Prediction: Sinner in 2

Humbert vs Sonego

This face-off is a real opportunity for two unexpected players to advance to the quarterfinals of a Masters 1000. Brace yourselves for a raucous crowd on Thursday, with French and Italian fans alike immersing themselves in vocal war. If the crowd is anywhere close to how worked up they were during Sonego’s last match, we’re in for a football stadium atmosphere.

Sonego is really riding his luck here. After being dumped out in qualifying by Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut, the Italian got automatic entry into the second round as a lucky loser after Alcaraz’s withdrawal. He played a sound match against Auger Aliassime, whose form has taken a nosedive over the past year or so. Now, he has a winnable match against Humbert to spring his way to a first Masters quarterfinal. What a story that would be.

Following a red-hot start to the season with two titles in Marseille and Dubai, Humbert has cooled off slightly. This is partly due to how less effective his whippy ground strokes are on the deadened slower surfaces. Monte Carlo, the slowest surface on the ATP tour, should theoretically be a nightmare for the Frenchman. However, after dropping the first set in his opening round to Coria, he has been merciless in his next four by dispatching Zhang routinely too. Is the lefty finally adapting to these conditions?

These two met here last year in the first round. Sonego eked put a tight win by saving multiple match points. However, Humbert was experiencing a notable slump in form at that time. The Frenchman has improved leaps and bounds since then, and I’m banking on him taking advantage of this more forgiving section of the draw.

Prediction: Humbert in 3

Ruud vs Hurkacz

Before last week, Hubert Hurkacz didn’t have the best relationship with clay. It was definitely the Pole’s worst surface, as it weakened his tour-topping serve and overall aggression, making it harder for him to come forward to the net and finish with his signature devilish touch. But that all changed last week. By coming through a relatively tough field in Estoril, Hurkacz made a statement in the final by defeating Pedro Martinez 6-3, 6-4 and finally finding success on the surface that has eluded him for so long. There is still gaping room for improvement, though.

Casper Ruud has handled tough loss to Martinez last week very pleasingly so far in Monaco. Given how easily the World No. 8 blazes through clay 250 titles, this loss was particularly surprising. However he has done well this week, with a routine victory against the ever-dangerous Alejandro Tabilo. The Norwegian put on a steady display of controlled aggression to keep the Chilean at bay.

The last match these two played on clay was at the fourth round of Roland Garros in 2022. Although Ruud lost the third set, it was a fairly comfortable victory. I am choosing Ruud to triumph due to his prowess and pedigree on the clay. Casper thrives on the dirt, and with Hurkacz coming straight off a title, will be the fresher of the two.

Prediction: Ruud in 3