Miami Masters Round of 16 Predictions

Tuesday in Miami promises to bring an action-packed series of matches, with Alcaraz, Medvedev and Sinner all playing.

Machac vs Arnaldi

Tomas Machac did well to close out an ailing Andy Murray in the third round. Although his 5-2 lead in the decider quickly disappeared, he did well to regain his composure and finish strong with a series of blistering backhands down 5-4 in the deciding tiebreak. This backed up his upset of Rublev in fine style.

Matteo Arnaldi, on the other hand, has been more convincing at Key Biscayne. Taking down Fils, Bublik and Shapovalov all in straight sets, a trio of explosive hitters, has only highlighted the strength and steadiness of his counterpunching game. Overall, his game and movement look more polished than Machac's. This is a tough one to call, but I'm giving the Italian an edge due to how well he has played this week.

Prediction: Arnaldi in 3

Medvedev vs Koepfer

Daniil Medvedev played good against Fucsovics in his opening round, and although he was a little scratchy against Norrie in the first set, he ran the second in dominant fashion.

Koepfer put together an extremely solid performance against a red-hot Humbert, putting on a bruising display of firepower on both his forehand and backhand side to come back and beat the in-form lefty. When the German is on, he can blast his way through opponents. However, Medvedev's defensive skills and anticipation are just in a league of their own right now. Although I expect some close moments, I'm choosing the World No. 4 to sweep through.

Prediction: Medvedev in 2

Ruud vs Jarry

Ruud has been shaky so far this week. Going three sets against Luca Van Assche and struggling to put Davidovich Fokina to bed in his previous round, the Norwegian has also been complaining about the humid Miami conditions. Before this week though, he had a nice stretch of results, making back-to-back finals in Mexico (Los Cabos & Acapulco) and reaching the quarter-finals of Indian Wells. It has been pleasing to see him climb back into the top ten after the disappointment of 2023.

Nicolas Jarry fought through a raucous, divided South-American crowd in the Round of 32 against Thiago Seyboth Wild. The towering Chilean navigated his way to a win after dropping the opening set. He also saved match points against the ever-dangerous Jack Draper, meaning that he has not given up this week. In this matchup, I feel like Ruud's groundstrokes, especially his backhand, will simply not be penetrative enough to curb the aggression of Jarry. Although there may be glimpses of inconsistency, expect Nicolas's booming serve and forehand to deal a lot of damage.

Prediction: Jarry in 3

Sinner vs O'Connell

Disregarding his loss against Alcaraz in the Californian Desert, Jannik Sinner was pushed to the limit for the first time in 2024 against Tallon Griekspoor. As the Dutchman took the first set and made the second extremely competitive, he finally cracked, allowing the World No. 3 to finally push through and pounce all over the third set. However, this wasn't a very convincing performance from Sinner, who made some uncharacteristic errors before ultimately finding his range in the end.

O'Connell will be looking to take advantage of this dip in form. The Australian's side of the draw opened up nicely following Tommy Paul's retirement, and he won a very tight match against the big-serving Damm in two tiebreaks following his upset over Tiafoe. However, Sinner is just levels above him right now. I'm betting on the Italian powering his way through to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Sinner in 2

Dimitrov vs Hurkacz

Grigor Dimitrov staged an impressive comeback against Tabilo in the second round, winning 5 points in a row from 2-5 down in the second set tiebreak, before demolishing Hanfmann next in just 46 minutes. The 32-year-old is now on the verge of entering the top ten for the first time since 2017.

Hurkacz made things tighter than they needed to be against Shevchenko in the opening round. He held a spirited Sebastian Korda at bay to progress to this round. As usual, his thunderous serve and tiebreak prowess have propelled him to victory. However, the head-to-head cannot be ignored. The Bulgarian leads 5-0 and I believe that he can use his slice and all-court craftiness cleverly to exploit his opponent's forehand.

Prediction: Dimitrov in 3

Alcaraz vs Musetti

Ever since their meeting in the Hamburg 2022 final, where Musetti triumphed in a rollercoaster match to clinch the title, Alcaraz has ruled their head-to-head, not dropping more than 3 games in a set in their next 3 meetings. It seems fair to say that the Spaniard has cracked Lorenzo's code. Musetti showed his best form in some while to overcome the likes of Roman Safiullin and Ben Shelton, and while the talent is ever-present, Alcaraz is more disciplined and powerful. Expect plenty of trickshots, fun and entertainment, but the Spanish prodigy should win comfortably.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 2

Maroszan vs De Minaur

De Minaur has excelled this year, reaching the top ten for the first time and defending his title in Acapulco. It's been great to see him develop more weapons in his game and control more points on his own terms. His steady improvement has not gone unnoticed and he has taken down a few quality opponents on his way to the fourth round.

Maroszan has once again proven why he is always a dark horse. In his breakout year, 2023, he upset Carlos Alcaraz in Rome while also reaching the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters. This week, he has added another scalp to his list by obliterating World No. 7 Holger Rune for the loss of just two games. While the young Dane was not up to par, Maroszan was clinical and near-flawless. However, I trust De Minaur's recent form and consistency more.

Prediction: De Minaur in 3

Zverev vs Khachanov

Following his gruelling and lengthy Australian Open campaign, Alexander Zverev underperformed severely in the South American swing, falling to Thompson and Altmaier in Los Cabos and Acapulco respectively. Although he managed to get back on track last week in Indian Wells, he was dismantled by Alcaraz in the gritty and slow desert conditions. This week in Miami however, the conditions seem to suit him more, and he has put up two great performances against Auger-Aliassime (against whom he only lost 2 service points in the entire match!) and the fired-up Eubanks.

Khachanov burst onto the scene this year with a 250 title in Doha, but gave a lacklustre showing in Indian Wells, crashing out to Seyboth Wild. He was erratic against Cerundolo, and only just squeezed through with a win 7-5 in the final set breaker. The last time Zverev and Khachanov met was at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, which the German won in straight sets. I am going with the same result here given Zverev's stellar serving record in 2024 and Khachanov's indifferent form.

Prediction: Zverev in 2