Madrid Masters - Tournament Preview and Analysis

Top seed Jannik Sinner and Rafael Nadal both return to the Caja Magica for the first time since 2022.

Jannik Sinner's Quarter

The World No. 2 looks to translate his impeccable form in 2024 to the fastest clay-court tournament of the year.

Top seeds: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Casper Ruud, (9) Grigor Dimitrov, (16) Karen Khachanov, (19) Adrian Mannarino, (22) Nicolas Jarry, (29) Cameron Norrie, (32) Jordan Thompson

Projected quarterfinal: Sinner vs Ruud

Dark Horse: Nicolas Jarry

Early Blockbuster: None

Following Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from the tournament, Sinner earns the position of top seed at a Masters 1000 for the very first time. The Italian is expected to face compatriot Lorenzo Sonego in the second round, with a potential clash with Karen Khachanov lying in wait. The big Russian recently made the quarterfinals of Monte Carlo, and given the high altitude, his serve and forehand can really pack a punch here. However, he may experience some troubles with Jarry - our dark horse for this quarter - whose game draws similarities to Khachanov with his thunderous serve and cracking forehand. However, whoever progresses, I can’t see them defeating Sinner; the 22-year-old is too good at absorbing and redirecting pace.

The other side of the quarter sees last week’s Barcelona champ and Monte Carlo finalist Casper Ruud. He could face Zhizhen Zhang in Round 2, who was a quarterfinalist here last year. But I don’t see the Chinese repeating his run. Breakout teenager Joao Fonseca also searches for success here on the big stage, but might not be polished enough to find any yet. Ruud could take on ninth seed Dimitrov in a delightful quarterfinal - but I don’t think the Bulgarian’s offence will be enough to do damage on this surface, especially against a seasoned clay-courter such as Casper.

Although the Norwegian has had some stellar results this year, he might have some hangover after his first ATP 500 title last week, and may even tire out following his brilliant stretch of results so far. Sinner's hitting should be enough to get the better of Casper.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner d. Ruud

Daniil Medvedev’s Quarter

The flat-hitting Russian is trying to overcome his clay-court woes in Madrid.

Top seeds: (3) Daniil Medvedev, (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (10) Alex de Minaur, (14) Ben Shelton, (17) Alexander Bublik, (20) Frances Tiafoe, (25) Sebastian Korda, (30) Jiri Lehecka

Projected Quarterfinal: Medvedev vs Tsitsipas

Dark Horse: Rafael Nadal

Early Blockbuster: Nadal vs de Minaur R2, Medvedev vs Arnaldi R2

Daniil Medvedev does not have a promising record here at the Spanish capital. Although the high altitude does benefit his serve slightly, making it zip through the court faster, his extremely flat groundstrokes still remain a mystery to be solved. With the exception of Rome last year, which presented heavy, wet and slow conditons, the 6’6” Russian has severe problems on the clay. And to add insult to injury, the conditions here in Madrid are almost a polar opposite to that in Rome. To be honest, the third seed could probably even be dumped out in the second round by Matteo Arnaldi, who poses a lot of problems on the dirt. Even if he does come through that challenging encounter, however, he could face Ben Shelton in a thrilling Round of 16. These conditions perfectly suit the American’s monstrous ballstriking, and Shelton is looking like a real candidate to advance to the last eight.

On the other side, 5-time champion Rafael Nadal plays this tournament for what may be the last time in his storied career. After his first round match against 16-year-old Darwin Blanch (which he will most likely win), there’s some strong deja vu here, as the Spanish great could take on De Minaur again - who defeated him just last week in Barcelona. But with the Spanish crowd behind him, I think that Rafa could play some inspired tennis and come through that contest. However, even if he makes the fourth round, his progression will likely come to an end against Tsitsipas; the Greek is just looking too strong on clay at the moment.

With Tsitsipas and Shelton meeting in the quarters, Shelton’s pacey serve will irk Tsitsipas on the backhand return. Overall, though, I do think the American is a bit too rough around the edges to give Stef too much trouble. But don't ignore him - he could take the racket out of anyone's hands, especially given the altitude here in Madrid.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Tsitsipas d. Shelton

Alexander Zverev’s Quarter

The fourth seed comes off an early loss in Munich, but is on a bid to repeat his title runs in 2018 and 2021.

Top seeds: (4) Alexander Zverev, (8) Hubert Hurkacz, (12) Taylor Fritz, (15) Tommy Paul, (18) Sebastian Baez, (21) Francisco Cerundolo, (26) Tomas Etcheverry, (31) Arthur Fils

Projected Quarterfinal: Zverev vs Hurkacz

Dark Horse: Aslan Karatsev

Early Blockbuster: Hurkacz vs Draper R2, Fritz vs Monfils R2

Alexander Zverev always plays close to his best here in Madrid. Although he has been unfortunate enough to run into Alcaraz the last couple of years, the German repeatedly expresses his love for this tournament. And why wouldn't he? It's the only place he's won a Masters 1000 title twice, and the lively conditions sharpen the offensive tools he possesses; namely the serve and backhand, while also amplifying his forehand finishing power. Zverev is the clear favourite to finish on top of this quarter, although there may be some potential threats looming. Our dark horse, Karatsev, made the semi-finals here last year. His hyper-aggressive brand of tennis suffocated his opponents as he ploughed through his side of the draw. However, this will be the Russian's first match since the Brisbane International back in January; Karatsev injured his ACL back in his match against Kubler, and had to take some time off to recover. Given how error-prone and inconsistent Aslan is, rust isn't something that will sit well with his tennis. I don't think he's much of a threat here.

But the options for dark horses here are limited; although there a number of talented players who decorate this section of the draw, it's simply too difficult to see them gaining any momentum this tournament. Jack Draper has failed time and time again to show up to big tournaments, and his fitness continues to let him down. Denis Shapovalov oozes talent but struggles to harvest it. Gael Monfils doesn't have the best history in Madrid and age is only slowing him down. And although Borna Coric (most likely Zverev's second round opponent) made the semis here last year, he's stuck in a bad rut of form.

Tommy Paul could be Zverev's Round of 16 opponent. However, the American is returning from injury and underperforms on clay. Although there are some other potentially troublesome clay-courters, such as Etcheverry and Cerundolo, Zverev should have enough experience to pull through. On the other side of the draw, Hurkacz and Fritz are on a collision course. The Pole could meet Draper in the second round, which should be a fun matchup after their match in Monte Carlo, which finished in a dramatic third-set tiebreaker. Fritz could also run into Monfils in his second round, and the Gael may find a way to make things interesting with his classic French flair. But if Hurkacz and Fritz pass these tests and do meet in the fourth round, I'm giving Hurkacz the edge simply due to the effectiveness of his serve in this altitude and the progress he's made on clay this season (winning a title in Estoril).

I'm trusting Zverev's ability and aptitude on this surface, as well as his history at this event, to pull through to the semis.

Quarterfinal prediction: Zverev d. Hurkacz

Carlos Alcaraz's Quarter

The Spanish prodigy and defending champion begins his clay-court season here at home.

Top seeds: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Andrey Rublev, (11) Holger Rune, (13) Ugo Humbert, (23) Jan-Lennard Struff, (24) Tallon Griekspoor, (27) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, (28) Lorenzo Musetti

Projected Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs Rublev

Dark Horse: Jan-Lennard Struff

Early Blockbuster: Rublev vs Evans R2, Rune vs Navone/Popyrin R2

Carlos Alcaraz is finally back on clay. After opting out of Monte Carlo and Barcelona due to an arm injury, it looks like the Spanish superstar has recovered and will strive to bring his best tennis here, as well as entertain the home crowd. His second round match will either be against Rinderknech or Shevchenko, neither of whom have enough weapons to defeat Carlos. His third round encounter could be against twenty-eighth seed Lorenzo Musetti. Although the ostentatious Italian got the better of the Spaniard in Hamburg a couple of years ago, it's been one-way traffic ever since. And even though there might be some entertaining rallies here and there, it's hard to see Musetti beat Alcaraz for the second time given their head-to-head, whose futility was highlighted in their Miami meeting in March. But the Round of 16 is where things could get really complicated for the Spaniard. Jan-Lennard Struff looms in this section, the champion in Munich last week. The German reached the final here last year as a lucky loser, and even though he lost to Alcaraz, won only three points less than him in a tight three-setter. It's fair to say that he loves these conditions, and is in the form of his life after his maiden title last week. But the fatigue factor is definitely there; it's no surprise that previous-week-tournament-winners often drop early in these big events the next week. I could see Struff fall victim to this effect.

The other section of this quarter is tricky. The seventh seed, Rublev, is looking very vulnerable right now. The temperamental 26-year-old has only one won match since his disqualification in Dubai, and is prone to upset. He could even lose to Dan Evans in the second round, who has always put up a good fight against the Russian. Holger Rune comes in at the bottom of the section. The young Dane consistently brings his best tennis to the clay-court season, but does check out mentally sometimes in his matches. A potentially awkward second round awaits against either Navone or Popyrin. The Argentine is enjoying a breakthrough season, making the final in Rio and Bucharest and the semifinal in Morrocco. He is proving to be a skilled clay-courter and is dangerous here. So is Popyrin, who can be dynamite on his day. The Aussie has played Rune before, but succumbed in a close three-set battle in Rome last year. However, I think Holger has a point to prove this week and will make the quarters.

If Alcaraz and Rune do indeed face off, Alcaraz will probably push through. This is one of Carlos's favourite tournaments and he loves to put on a show for the Spanish fans. Rune never backs down from a fight and regularly plays fearless tennis against the very top players, but won't be enough for Alcaraz.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz d. Rune

Semifinal Predictions:

Sinner d. Tsitsipas in 3

Alcaraz d. Zverev in 2

Final Prediction:

Alcaraz d. Sinner in 3

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