Madrid Masters - Round of 16 Predictions

Medvedev and Bublik look to bring their zany, meme-worthy best to the 6th instalment in their rivalry, while defending champ Alcaraz faces his biggest threat yet and Nadal hopes to extend his inspiring run. Find out our picks here on Day 7 of the Madrid Masters.

Medvedev vs Bublik

This match is very tough to call, simply because it's almost impossible to predict what kind of Bublik will walk onto court today. Although the talented Kazakh has been incessantly vocal about his disdain for clay, he seems to have developed a liking for these ultra-quick conditions in Madrid. Reaching the quarterfinals here in 2021, with some solid wins against Shapovalov and Karatsev along the way, Sascha Bublik is trying to recapture that form.

Daniil Medvedev has fared reasonably well here at the Caja Magica. Although he has some clay pedigree to show after his triumph in Rome last year, the Spanish dirt hasn't been very kind to him. He arrives at the Round of 16 with battling wins against Arnaldi and Korda, whom he does tend to struggle against, and looks to go one better than last year. He was mere points from defeat against the American in his last round, but hung tough to eke out a win in the tiebreaker and come through with a pretty straightforward victory in the end. However, I feel like Korda made too many errors in the tiebreak and really should have put the match to bed earlier.

Bublik is ever-mercurial, but the seventeenth seed put up a spirited effort to come back from a set down against Shelton, who can be a nightmare in this altitude. Although it's hard to expect what kind of mood the Kazakh will be in today, he will definitely look to disrupt Daniil's metronomic rhythm will devilish slices, wicked dropshots and wizardry at the net. But given their head-to-head, I can't see Bublik being focused and patient enough to pierce the Russian's defences. However, do expect a lot of fun and drama in this popcorn match between two polarising characters of the game.

Prediction: Medvedev in 3

Rublev vs Griekspoor

Andrey Rublev seems to have finally snapped out of his bad bout of underperformance. The moody Russian had only won one match in his last four events, but overcame his dry spell with a convincing thrashing of Facundo Bagnis. The Argentine has a knack for these high-altitude clay-court events, but was no match for Andrey's ruthlessness. Things got tricky in Rublev's second round though. Down 5-1 in the first set tiebreak against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and staring down the barrel of 6 set points, the World Number 8 eventually came out on top, displaying nerves of steel in a 12-10 finish. The second set was equally tight, but a questionable moment from Davidovich Fokina gifted Rublev the break, whereafter he served the match out comfortably. The win was by no means pretty, but will give the Russian a surge of much-needed confidence. For the Spaniard, his mental turmoil continues.

Griekspoor took advantage of Holger Rune's indifferent level on Sunday. The Dutchman stood his ground and withstood a barrage of firepower before the Dane finally cracked. Holger, now 21 years of age, is still searching for a happy medium in terms of his tennis; not slapping the ball too aggressively and ignoring risks, but not standing metres behind the baseline and rolling balls into court either. Griekspoor looked shaky in his opener against Daniel, but pulled it together against Rune to score his first top-20 win at Masters 1000 level.

Their last two meetings have been close. However, Rublev should win this encounter by overpowering the Dutchman. It seems like he has finally regained his form, and the quality of his ballstriking is just a notch above Tallon's.

Prediction: Rublev in 3

Fritz vs Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz has definitely turned a leaf in 2024 on the red clay. By winning his first title on the surface in Estoril, the Pole has now cemented himself as one to watch for the French Open. Although he was broken three times in his previous match against Daniel Altmaier, something uncharacteristic of the big man, he progressed in straight sets and saw off the threat of last year's quarterfinalist. His serve has the ability to blow opponents off court and is only more weaponised in this altitude. More impressively, however, Hubert seems to have made noticeable changes on his forehand by working on being more aggressive with that wing, which was evident in his first-round win over Jack Draper.

Taylor Fritz was unwavering in his opener against Darderi. The Italian has been extremely dangerous on the clay this year and has even won a maiden title. The American backed up this performance with another demolition of Sebastian Baez, making life miserable for the Argentine by tallying up yet another win in their supremely one-sided head-to-head.

These two hit the ball big, especially on the serve, and look well-suited to the conditions at the Caja Magica. Expect fireworks when they lock horns. However, I'm going with Hurkacz to edge the American. Not only can the eighth seed's serve do more damage, but his movement is also better. The Pole's counterpunching may just draw one too many errors from Taylor.

Prediction: Hurkacz in 3

Zverev vs Cerundolo

Alexander Zverev has been majestic so far in the Spanish capital. He won't face Carlos Alcaraz, who's been his kryptonite at this venue for the last two years, until the semifinals. Life is looking good for the German; as usual, he has sailed through his opening two matches with a rock-solid win over last year's semifinalist Borna Coric in his first round. He followed this up by managing to keep a resurgent Denis Shapovalov at bay in straight sets. Zverev has the winning formula here at Madrid, which can be cracked only by a select few. He is pretty much looking like a lock-in candidate for the last four.

As Francisco Cerundolo mentioned himself in his post-match interview against Paul, he has been struggling over the last few months. Although his record in deciding sets this year has been horrific, the 21st seed finally managed to win one against Paul in his last round. After losing a first set that went down to the wire, the Argentine put his foot down and raced through the next two. Although Tommy Paul looked like he tweaked his ankle late in the first set, this win could prove very important for Cerundolo going forward.

Unfortunately for him, Zverev just about has him covered. Although Cerundolo's forehand can be deadly at times, he is too erratic to cause any problems for the German's steady brand of baseline tennis. Furthermore, his return will also be exposed by Sascha's flawless serving.

Prediction: Zverev in 2

Sinner vs Khachanov

There is a big cloud of doubt regarding this matchup because of Sinner's previous performance. The top seed wasn't at his best against Pavel Kotov, and these woes were attributed to a minor hip injury that the Italian picked up in Monte-Carlo, according to sources. Sinner has hinted that he doesn't feel like Madrid is important, and may want to preserve his body for his home Masters tournament in Rome, and more importantly, Roland Garros, whose presence is looming. But given that the Italian does step out onto Arantxa Sanchez Stadium today without experiencing too much discomfort, he should feel good about this encounter.

Much like last year, Karen Khachanov fought through a gritty three-set battle against Spaniard Bautista Agut, except this time it was even closer. Although the two shared some words at the net, the Russian will be feeling relieved to have followed this win up with another over rising Italian Flavio Cobolli.

But the Italian standing across the net today has already risen. If Jannik Sinner's body allows him to, he will be too classy for Karen. These two met in the Australian Open earlier this year, where Khachanov was rendered helpless in a straight-sets loss. It's looking like it might be a repeat here.

Prediction: Sinner in 2

Alcaraz vs Struff

A repeat of last year's final awaits in a mouthwatering showdown between two in-form players. Jan-Lennard Struff won his maiden title in Munich last week, and is absolutely loving these conditions. His booming serve is reinforced by heavy groundstrokes and watertight volleying, which makes him even more challenging to face in this tournament. He has picked up two nice victories over Jaume Munar, a clay-court specialist, and Ugo Humbert. Although the latter of the two isn't too inclined to the dirt, he did make the quarters in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago, and so the German did well in pushing aside that danger.

Alcaraz has been in imperious form so far this week. Although there were concerns about his forearm injury coming into this tournament, the Spaniard has brushed them aside and is feeling right at home. He has destroyed his first two opponents, including Seyboth Wild, who has been having a promising year so far. The Madrid Masters feels almost individually crafted for Carlos's gamestyle; the 20-year-old has just enough time to set up his bludgeoning groundstrokes on the slowness of the clay, but the conditions are also just fast and zippy enough for his shots to really deal that signature damage of his. It does seem like a perfect balance.

Their title match in 2023 went to three sets, with Alcaraz coming out on top but Struff just winning three points less than the Spaniard. It was closer than it looked, and the German seemed to possess the rare ability to disrupt Alcaraz's rhythm by constant net-rushing that day. I am trusting Alcaraz to triumph here simply because of his experience and past at this venue, coupled with the Spanish crowd cheering him on. But don't count Struff out; he can wreak havoc on any given day.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 3

Ruud vs Auger-Aliassime

Seeing Felix's name in the last 16 of a Masters 1000 tournament is surprising to say the least. This only stands testament to just how abhorrent he has been this year, a sad and inexplicable decline from the dizzying heights he reached in 2022. Although the Canadian's route to this stage has been anything but tricky, he deserves credit for taking advantage of this weaker section of the draw. He took on Nishioka in the first round, who hasn't really been playing all that much (or well) recently. Then, he faced another southpaw in Adrian Mannarino - but to say that the Frenchman despises clay would be an understatement. In his next round against Jakub Mensik, the breakthrough Czech teenager, Auger-Aliassime was benefitted by a retirement courtesy of an elbow injury. So it seems fair to say that Felix is just too underprepared right now for someone as adept on the clay as Ruud.

By capping off an incredible week in Barcelona with a first title above ATP 250 level, Casper seems to have finally broken his finalist curse, and many are now confident in considering him as a strong candidate for the world's biggest titles. The Norwegian has extended his stellar clay-court campaign with two good wins here in Madrid, gaining revenge on Cameron Norrie for his Australian Open loss along the way.

Right now, Casper is too strong for Felix on the dirt. The stark contrast in their results speaks volumes, and while the Norwegian is only getting better, Auger-Aliassime continues to be a victim of his own inconsistency.

Prediction: Ruud in 2

Nadal vs Lehecka

Rafael Nadal has strung together a magical run here at the Caja Magica. For what may be the last time, Rafa is looking to lengthen this run to the best of his ability. Although his match against 16-year-old Darwin Blanch wasn't really an indicator of his form, by avenging his defeat to De Minaur in Barcelona last week in the second round, he silenced any doubters. He then showed his timeless fighting spirit by pushing through a physically demanding 3-hour marathon against Pedro Cachin. Although the Spaniard wasn't at his best and got broken numerous times, playing and winning a 3-hour match was a clear positive, especially in the physicality department.

Jiri Lehecka blasted 24 winners to topple Tsitsipas-conqueror Monteiro in his second match at the venue. Although the Brazilian Monteiro was in the form of his life after just having picked up the win of his career, Lehecka made sure that he would not advance. First-strike tennis and controlled aggression are the bread and butter of the Czech, and the altitude here at Madrid makes sure his groundstrokes penetrate the court further. Although he hadn't played since Miami, Jiri has brought a sound level to Spain.

Ultimately, Rafa should have enough experience to gain the edge. The great champion will be inspired to finish on a high note in Madrid, and is the greatest clay-courter of all time for a reason. Even though Nadal himself erased any expectations of a win tonight, he cannot be dismissed. This is only Lehecka's first clay tournament of the year, and I simply haven't seen enough of him on the dirt to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Prediction: Nadal in 3