Madrid Masters - Quarterfinal (Day 1) Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev square off in a thrilling quarterfinal prospect that is sure to ignite plenty of fireworks.

Fritz vs Cerundolo

While many expected Taylor Fritz's serve to pale in comparison to his Polish adversary in the Round of 16, it was actually Hubert Hurkacz that came out on the wrong end numbers-wise. While Hurkacz did hit one more ace than Fritz and had a higher first serve percentage by two, it proved to be in vain; the American triumphed in both first serve and second serve points won, and had an overall serve rating of 334 - 35 points higher than that of Hurkacz, according to the Infosys ATP Stats. This serving masterclass, paired with a surgical display of clean, precise hitting, earned him a straight-set victory on Tuesday. The top-ranked American used his forehand adroitly, creating angles and generating great width to move Hurkacz around the court. This resulted in his second clay-court quarterfinal at Masters 1000 level - a nice achievement given his underwhelming start to the swing.

Francisco Cerundolo caused one of the upsets of the tournament yesterday, toppling two-time Madrid champion and fourth seed Zverev in an astonishing 1.5 hours. Although the young Argentine has always been a player to watch, especially with that bruising forehand of his, he had never quite fulfilled his potential - until yesterday. Cerundolo went on a rampage, unleashing forehand winner after winner and an array of filthy-good dropshots that left the towering German stunned. It was perhaps the best performance of his nascent career. What was particularly impressive about this match was the straightforward manner of it, given Alexander's imposing record at this event and his fondness for these conditions.

This is almost a coin-flip encounter. The Argentine definitely has the weapons to disrupt Taylor's game, but I'm giving the edge to Fritz here simply because of how good his serve is in this altitude. Additionally, I think the American might be a tad better at absorbing and counterpunching Cerundolo's pace.

Prediction: Fritz in 3

Alcaraz vs Rublev

What a contest we have on our hands here. This is only the second meeting between two blisteringly ferocious ball-bludgeoners who club the ball harder than 99% of players on tour. A fitting term for this clash - or rather, coalescence - of styles would be '"beautiful brutality"; a contextually apt oxymoron where "brutality" refers to the astounding speed and sheer force that these two clock their groundstrokes at, and the "beautiful" in front of it references the exquisitely artistic experience one undergoes as these same groundstrokes paint the lines in a tapestry of geometric perfection.

Defending champion Alcaraz looked extremely rocky in his third round against the in-form Struff. Although Struff wasn't necessarily playing his best tennis, his rhythm-killing was enough to catch the Spaniard off-guard. Nail-biting moments ensued as a break in the second set and 5-3, 40-0 in the last for Alcaraz came and went in an inexplicable flash. The younger man missed some routine shots while the veteran dragged the match to a final set tiebreak. With everyone in the Caja Magica on the edge of their seats, Carlos produced a series of wondrous passing shots to survive the almighty scare - and in the process, proved just why his record in deciding tiebreaks is so impeccable.

On the contrary, Andrey Rublev was all business in his victory over Griekspoor on Tuesday. The Russian was clinical in advancing 6-2, 6-4 over a potential hurdle. It looks like his signature confidence on his forehand has finally returned. This was a week that Andrey definitely needed.

Unfortunately, I believe this is where it might end. Yes, the Russian can hit the ball big, but it will be by no means enough against the second seed. Alcaraz has oodles of variety at his disposal which is made even more deadly on the clay. Their last meeting was heavily one-sided in favour of Alcaraz, and he is the overwhelming favourite here.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 2