French Open - Round of 16 (Day 1) Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz and Jannik Sinner headline Day 1 of fourth-round action here at Roland Garros.

Tsitsipas vs Arnaldi

Our dark horse prediction was right! Matteo Arnaldi caused one of the upsets of the tournament last round against a livid Andrey Rublev, sealing a straight sets win to reach Week 2 of a Grand Slam for a second time. But his run this week is even more impressive than last year's US Open. With a bold statement victory in his first round against home favourite Arthur Fils, the unseeded Italian collided with yet another Frenchman in Muller in Round 2. Although Matteo looked somewhat uncertain at times, facing 21 break points in total throughout the encounter, he saved 18 of them and closed it out comfortably in straight sets. But the third round was where the 23-year-old really made his mark. After saving a set point against Rublev in a tense opening set, Arnaldi played one of the points of the week on his own set point, with a stunning sprint to the net and an outrageous cross-court angle. With Rublev left both dumbfounded and seething, Arnaldi raised his arms to the air after a near-impossible get that clinched him the tiebreak 8-6. This point only highlighted the Italian's footspeed and agility, and the control and craft he displayed when he actually got to the ball. With the Russian fighting his own mental demons, Matteo played great defensive tennis - emphasised by deep, floating slices and daring court-coverage - to send the sixth seed home. It was a weird coincidence as Rublev - usually one of the most consistent players at slam-level - was knocked out of the French Open by an Italian player in the third round for a second straight year (l. to Lorenzo Sonego in 2023). His behaviour yesterday was particularly poor, with multiple racket smashes and abuse towards his box bringing his internal struggles to light.

Meanwhile, Stef Tsitsipas has looked scary good so far in Paris. After a shaky first round against the danger that is Marton Fucsovics, Tsitsipas looked even shakier against a redlining Altmaier in the second round. In fact, Altmaier beat Jannik Sinner at the same stage on the same court in last year's edition of RG, and after a one-sided third set tiebreak, it looked like he was slowly recapturing some of that form. But Stefanos was having none of it. He fired down a series of forehand missiles to finish the match in four, putting any whispers of a potential upset to bed. The Greek was even more domineering in his next round, bulldozing through Zhang for the loss of just seven games.

I am siding with Stef to reach the quarterfinals. The ninth seed has been exceptional this clay season and is one of the favourites to win it all in Paris. Unlike Rublev, Tsitsipas's volleying skills are top-notch and can finish points quickly before Arnaldi gets the opportunity to scramble and neutralise the point. Although Matteo's counterpunching and movement may draw some errors from his racket, the Italian is too inexperienced to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 4

Alcaraz vs Auger-Aliassime

Carlos Alcaraz hasn't looked all that good this week at the French Open. His repeated donning of a white arm sleeve indicates that his injury isn't getting much better, and he is still self-admittedly having trouble hitting his forehands at maximum speed. Although the Spaniard let loose on his forehand wing towards the end of his second-set tiebreaker against Korda, claiming that he "missed the feeling" of it, the fact that he's been consciously holding back on it is a worrying sign. While his first-round thumping of lucky loser JJ Wolf was anything but tight, things got tricky in Round 2 against inspired Dutch qualifier De Jong. After unleashing a comedy of unforced errors and dropping his third set 6-2, Carlos finally managed to reign the ropes back in and finish in style. Even in his next encounter against Seb Korda, the talented third seed was nowhere near his best and made things closer than they needed to be. Nonetheless, he won the match in straight sets, courtesy of Korda committing some huge errors on crucial points. However, the fact that his injury is still occupying such a large portion of his mind is concerning to say the least.

However, if anyone were to knock out Alcaraz, I can't see it being Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian has experienced somewhat of a resurgence in these last couple of months, and has breezed through his draw at RG. With routine wins over Nishioka and Squire, FAA put forth an authoritative display against 15th seed Ben Shelton. But this triumph wasn't as impressive as the scoreline may suggest. Shelton's game was perforated by unforced errors, and there were even rumours of the American yielding an elbow injury coming into the match.

Simply put, I think that Alcaraz will overwhelm FAA here. The Spaniard has routed the Canadian in Indian Wells for two consecutive years now, and the conditions here are similar to that of the Californian desert. Although Felix can dish out some damage with the roof closed and his serve firing, his groundstrokes will betray him.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

Hurkacz vs Dimitrov

My, oh my. This is a tantalising matchup given how well these guys have been playing recently and the competitive nature of their contests. Yes, Dimitrov leads the head-to-head 5-0. But did you know that three out of these five matches have ended in a final set tiebreak? And did you know that all of these encounters so far have gone to a deciding set, with the only exception coming in Rotterdam last year - which was won in two, down-to-the-wire breakers? The margins are razor-fine in tennis, and this head-to-head is simply an example of this. Had Hubi been a tad bit more clutch in tense moments, then perhaps it would be 5-0 in his favour!

But the Pole has looked uncharacteristically patchy so far this week. In one of the surprises of the event, Hurkacz was dragged to five sets by Japanese qualifier Mochizuki in his opener. He then dropped the first set against Nakashima in his next round in a tiebreaker - a breaker being something he so often dominates. He looked better against Denis Shapovalov in the third round, but still some question marks remain over his form. Given how eventful his clay-court season has been, Hurkacz was primed to make a deep run in Paris. Can he meet the expectations?

Grigor Dimitrov, on the other hand, has been much more convincing as he heads into the second week. With a straight sets victory over Kovacevic, the Bulgarian demolished Fabian Marozsan in Round 2, handing the Hungarian a bagel in the first set. It was a masterful performance given how dangerous Marozsan can be on his day. He then ground through a challenging contest against Bergs, the qualifier who has been posting some notable results this year.

This blockbuster meeting is very difficult to predict. It will be interesting to see how this matchup translates from the ATP tour to the best-of-five format. I believe that it will put the Bulgarian at a disadvantage. Grigor's fitness is waning as his age increases, and the slowness of the clay as well as his unwillingness to hit over his backhand will extend the rallies and make this tussle very taxing. For this reason solely, I am giving Hurkacz the edge. I just can't see Dimitrov maintaining his level over the course of five sets.

Prediction: Hurkacz in 5

Sinner vs Moutet

Corentin Moutet is having the time of his life at home. Fuelled by the passionately obstreperous crowds in Paris, the repeated chants of "Moutet" from the stands seemed to have awakened a beast inside him. Although the Frenchman is smaller in size than most players on the tour and isn't as much of a hard hitter, he makes up for this lost power in guile. Often renowned as a 'junkballer', Corentin loves to perplex his opponents by sprinkling in his fair share of nifty slices, exasperating moonballs and - as seen in his last match - even underarm serves. He has cruised through his last three matches with quality wins over dark horse Jarry, Shevchenko and Ofner. Although there have been some lapses in concentration, Moutet finds himself in the Round of 16 at a Slam for the first time in his career. Now, with the French crowd firmly on his side, he is shining bright - and he looks to orchestrate the upset of the tournament over Sinner by taking his dream run to the quarterfinals.

Jannik Sinner has sort of flown under the radar here at Stade Roland Garros this year. The World No. 2 has never gone past the quarterfinal stage at RG, but is looking to blitz his shortcomings into oblivion in 2024. Like Alcaraz, he is suffering some hip discomfort and has been unremarkable yet solid in his first three rounds. Although he has been far from his best this week, has has swept through a tame section of the draw without dropping a set.

If this match took place last year, I wouldn't be as confident as I am now. But the Italian has evolved immensely since then, and the quality of his ballstriking accompanied by his impenetrable mentality have improved leaps and bounds. Even though Moutet and his legion of rowdy supporters will throw the kitchen sink at Jannik, he will remain unfazed.

Prediction: Sinner in 3