French Open 2024 - Tournament Preview and Analysis

With Alcaraz and Sinner under huge injury clouds, Rafael Nadal close to retirement and Djokovic stuck in a bad rut of form, this is arguably the most open French Open yet. Here at Cross-Court Tennis, we offer you a full quarter-by-quarter breakdown and analysis of the 2024 Roland Garros men's draw.

Novak Djokovic's Quarter

The top seed is seeking to snuff out rumours of his decline and add to his record-breaking slam tally.

Top Seeds: (1) Novak Djokovic, (7) Casper Ruud, (12) Taylor Fritz, (14) Tommy Paul, (22) Francisco Cerundolo, (23) Adrian Mannarino, (28) Tomas Etcheverry, (30) Lorenzo Musetti

Projected Quarterfinal: Djokovic vs Ruud

Dark Horse: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Early Blockbuster: Monfils vs Wild R1, Ruud vs Davidovich Fokina R2

Novak Djokovic has been struggling in 2024. After bowing out to Tomas Machac in the semifinals of ATP 250 Geneva, he faced his press conference with brutal honesty, stating that he is "worried" and "doesn't see himself as a favourite" for Roland Garros. The World No. 1 has not made a final this year, and just when he looks to be back on track, suffers a range of uncharacteristic defeats punctuated by errors and a lack of motivation. However, the defending champion will definitely be pleased after seeing his side of the draw.

His first-round match is against local wildcard Pierre-Hugues Herbert, whose serve-and-volley tactics will be rendered ineffective by the slowness of the Parisian play and the calibre of Djokovic's return. In the second round, he will most likely play Carballes Baena, who is quite a good matchup for Djokovic. The docile Spaniard will offer Novak loads of time on the ball, allowing him to find his rhythm. Monfils, who is a potential third-round opponent, always lights things up for his home crowd. He plays Thiago Seyboth Wild in our early blockbuster, who knocked out second seed Medvedev last year. The Brazilian has weapons galore, but Monfils will no doubt produce some stunning defence. All things aside, I can't see the Frenchman's fitness lasting past the third round. Although Cerundolo or Paul can be a tricky Round of 16, neither has the ballstriking required to blow Djokovic off the court. This tame section of the draw will see the top seed gradually rediscover his level, slowly easing himself into form in the five-set format.

The second-highest seed in this quarter is Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has been scrappy after winning Barcelona, and came very close to defeat multiple times during his title run to Geneva last week. Ruud will have breathed a sigh of relief after seeing his first-round adversary, Jakub Mensik, withdraw last minute. The young Czech has beaten plenty of big names this year but was nursing an injury coming into RG. Instead, Ruud will play qualifier Alves, who he will most likely beat. However, the second round could get very dangerous. Our dark horse Davidovich Fokina looms, and although he has been underwhelming this clay season (earning only one win against World No. 111 J.C. Shang), the uber-talented Spaniard has a knack for turning up to big matches. An example of this that springs to mind is last year's French Open, where he took Djokovic to two tight tiebreakers - each lasting almost 1.5 hours each - before succumbing in the third. If Casper passes this test, the draw doesn't get any easier for him. His probable third-round opponent is Etcheverry, who thrives on the dirt and reached the Lyon final just last week. In the Round of 16, he will most likely square off against 12th seed Taylor Fritz. The American has developed not only a liking for this surface, but a new nickname: Claylor. Fritz has been impressive this clay swing, and I feel like his venomous hitting off both wings can penetrate Ruud's spinnier ball. Although he was upset by Michelsen in the first round of Geneva, this could serve as a blessing in disguise, allowing Fritz to rest and recoup for RG. On the contrary, all the tennis Ruud has played recently might catch up to him; after all, he played two matches in one day today en route to the Geneva trophy. I think he will be worn out.

Regardless of whether Fritz or Ruud advance to the quarters, Djokovic should cruise through. The World No. 1 has never lost to Fritz, and although he lost to Casper in Monte-Carlo, has always had the upper hand against the Norwegian on big occasions and the best-of-five format.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic d. Fritz

Alexander Zverev's Quarter

After clinching the Rome Masters and a World No. 4 ranking, Zverev faces his toughest first-round opponent of all time: Rafael Nadal.

Top Seeds: (4) Alexander Zverev, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (11) Alex de Minaur, (13) Holger Rune, (18) Karen Khachanov, (19) Alexander Bublik, (26) Tallon Griekspoor, (31) Mariano Navone

Projected Quarterfinal: Zverev vs Medvedev

Dark Horse: Jan-Lennard Struff

Early Blockbuster: Zverev vs Nadal R1, Rune vs Evans R1, Struff vs Bublik R2

Wow. Just wow. Utter disbelief would be an understatement to describe what everybody felt when this part of the draw was first unveiled. Alexander Zverev, one of the major title contenders, is facing 14-time champ and perhaps the greatest clay-courter of all time in Rafael Nadal. The German and the legendary Spaniard lock horns for the first time since the former's horrific ankle injury - one that nearly derailed his career - in 2022. Will Zverev gain revenge on Monday? Or will the ghosts of his past come back to haunt him? There are so many questions to be answered here. Although Rafa is far from his best right now, I feel like this is his best chance to win. It's a first-round matchup, meaning that Nadal will be fit and firing; and with a fresh body, Nadal is capable of anything. To add to this, Rafa has nothing left to prove. In most likely his final French Open, the lefty will be swinging freely and happily, while Zverev - one of the favourites for the trophy - may crumble under the pressure. But I'm expecting Big Z to take this one comfortably. Their levels right now are worlds apart, and this was highlighted during the recent Rome Masters; while Sascha lifted the trophy, Rafa crashed out in the second round, winning only four games against Hurkacz. Worryingly, the Spaniard was also rusty in his opener against Zizou Bergs and almost lost that one. However, there's no shame for Nadal here in losing to one of the world's hottest players right now in terms of form.

Zverev's second round match will be against either Goffin or Lyon champion Mpetshi-Perricard. But Goffin is way past his prime, and Giovanni is too inexperienced to cause the fourth seed any trouble. In the third round, Luciano Darderi will look to add a big name to his list of victories this clay season - but as seen in their meeting in Rome, it will be smooth sailing for Zverev. Things could take a rough turn in his Round of 16, however. With either the steeliness of Karen Khachanov or the flashiness of Holger Rune awaiting in the fourth round, the German will be made to work hard but should progress without any worries. Holger Rune faces Dan Evans in his opener. While neither of them is in good form, it will be interesting to see how Holger tackles Evans' guile. In the Round of 16, I don't expect Khachanov to breach Sascha's baseline prowess, and while Rune may do it at times, the young Dane is too temperamental to finish the job.

The other side of this section has Daniil Medvedev trying to go one better than last year. After his shortcomings at the Foro Italico, the Russian has now dropped to World No. 5. Although both Koepfer and Monteiro, his potential first and second-round opponents respectively, can be menacing on the clay given the heavy weaponry they possess, I simply can't see any of them bypassing the 6'6" man's counterpunching skill. But he could run into trouble thereafter. His most probable third-round opponent is Mariano Navone, whose rise to the upper echelon of the men's game has been nothing short of remarkable. Before the Rio Open this year, he had never won a main draw match; but now, the steady Argentine has stealthily climbed the ranks and is seeded 31st for his Grand Slam debut - quite an astonishing feat! Navone is a clay-court specialist and certainly has the tools to unsettle Medvedev. If Medvedev comes through that challenge, another man awaits in red-hot form: Jan-Lennard Struff. The tall German has an explosive gamestyle and his textbook serve-and-volleying is sure to give the World No. 5 headaches. Standing in Struff's way to the fourth round is Alexander Bublik. Although the mercurial Kazakh is a Top-20 seed, his animosity towards the dirt may see him wilt. But with the tricks he has up his sleeve, he could make it a fun encounter. De Minaur may play Struff in the third round, which could be a very close contest. But even if De Minaur does triumph, it still spells trouble for Daniil; the Aussie has a history of rattling the Russian. Daniil Medvedev's path is laced with a series of troublesome opponents, and I'm not sure I can see him reach the quarters.

I am expecting Zverev to defeat Struff in an all-German affair.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev d. Struff

Carlos Alcaraz's Quarter

An ongoing forearm injury leaves the Spaniard scrambling for form in a packed section of the draw.

Top Seeds: (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Andrey Rublev, (9) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (15) Ben Shelton, (17) Ugo Humbert, (21) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (27) Sebastian Korda, (29) Arthur Fils

Projected Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs Rublev

Dark Horse: Matteo Arnaldi

Early Blockbuster: Fucsovics vs Tsitsipas R1, Shelton vs Gaston R1, Alcaraz vs Draper R2

There is no doubt that Carlos Alcaraz's forearm is getting better by the day. However, he is still tentative and is having trouble hitting forehands at 100%, some sources say. Having only played two clay-court events all season long, the first of which was back in February, the Spaniard desperately attempts to reclaim his form before he succumbs to this tricky little pocket of the draw. His first adversary is lucky loser J.J. Wolf. The American has steeply declined from the heights he reached two years ago, and was crushed by De Jong in qualifying 6-1, 6-2. But he has benefitted from Mensik's late withdrawal and now gets a shot at the defending semifinalist here. Alcaraz should sweep through this match very easily. In the second round, he could face 22-year-old Jack Draper. Although the thunderous Brit is very often hyped, his game hasn't developed enough to hurt Carlos. Draper consistently underperforms in big events and is still searching for a big win to take his career to the next level. Even with his muscular frame, the youngster lacks penetration and finishing power on his groundstrokes. Seb Korda is the most probable person to play Alcaraz in the third round. Although Korda's clean technique oozes elegance, it often proves to be style over substance as unforced errors riddle his ground game. Kei Nishikori is also in action in this section of the draw. However, I think winning a five-set match is too tall a task for the veteran right now and I can definitely see him falling to qualifier Gabriel Diallo. Alcaraz's fourth-round opponent may be either Auger-Aliassime or Shelton. Neither of these North Americans is in good form. Shelton collides with Frenchman Hugo Gaston in his opener in what should be an intriguing popcorn match. Gaston picked up a couple of solid wins in Lyon last week, and his crafty dropshots have the ability to puzzle and perplex the American. With the obstreperous crowd firmly on Hugo's side, Ben will also look to bring the heat by playing the role of a villain. Gaston had a memorable run to the fourth round of Roland Garros in 2020, toppling Stan Wawrinka and pushing Dominic Thiem to five exhausting sets. Can he pull off yet another upset four years later? Although Felix reached the final of Madrid, Shelton continues to be underwhelming on the European clay. Both of these players have too many holes in their game to beat Carlos. While this side of the draw is filled with talented men, I can't picture anybody fulfilling their potential.

On the other side, two Masters 1000 champions in 2024 kickstart their quest for a maiden Grand Slam. Andrey Rublev has two very winnable rounds against Daniel and Martinez before he could run into our dark horse Matteo Arnaldi. The Italian takes on Fils in his first round. Teenager Fils has had a subpar season so far, but could turn it around with the French supporters blowing the wind into his sails. Fils and Arnaldi had a marathon five-setter in the US Open last year, and this has the potential to live up to that hype. Arnaldi has made the fourth round of a slam before and could fly under the radar here, but won't upset Rublev.

Meanwhile, Stefanos Tsitsipas starts off against giant-killer Fucsovics. The Hungarian has been a seed-slayer throughout his Grand Slam career, and is very dangerous in these first couple of rounds. After that, Stefanos should be in cruise control against potential obstacles Djere, Humbert or even Zhang. In the Round of 16, old foes Tsitsipas and Rublev will renew their rivalry. These two know each other's games very well, but on a surface like this I am always giving the Greek the edge because of the variety he possesses and the time he gets to execute it.

My prediction for the quarterfinal largely hinges on whether Alcaraz is healthy and the severity of his injury. But if the World No. 3 is all sorted by this stage, he should move on to the semis. His 5-0 head-to-head lead over Tsitsipas doesn't lie.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Tsitsipas

Jannik Sinner's Quarter

Arguably the best player of 2024, Sinner is also under an injury cloud but is looking to take big strides here in Paris.

Top Seeds: (2) Jannik Sinner, (8) Hubert Hurkacz, (10) Grigor Dimitrov, (16) Nicolas Jarry, (20) Sebastian Baez, (24) Alejandro Tabilo, (25) Frances Tiafoe, (32) Cameron Norrie

Projected Quarterfinal: Sinner vs Hurkacz

Dark Horse: Alejandro Tabilo

Early Blockbuster: Murray vs Wawrinka R1, Shapovalov vs Tiafoe R2

This feels like the most straightforward quarter of the bunch at this year's RG. Like Alcaraz, Sinner comes in with a concerning hip problem which saw him withdraw from his quarterfinal match in Madrid and Rome altogether. However, it looks like it has healed; the Italian seems to be striking the ball cleanly and unhampered in practice. He has landed in a relatively safe space of the draw, with no real threats until the fourth round. His first-round encounter is against Eubanks, who struggles mightily on clay and is yet to win a match on the surface this season. In Round 2, the second seed with meet another player who is searching for wins on the ATP Tour in Borna Coric. The Croatian won Cincinnati in 2022 but is unable to fix his woes on the forehand wing. Close by, perhaps the second-most anticipated match of the main draw lies in Murray vs Wawrinka. Two legends of the game take to Phillipe-Chatrier for what may be the last time in their storied careers. These two have a rich history at the French Open, with their five-set epic in the 2017 semifinals earning its place in tennis royalty. Looking back, that may be the match that destroyed their bodies, with both players encountering numerous injury struggles thereafter. Their most recent meeting at this venue came in 2020, which Stan won convincingly in straights. I'm backing Wawrinka to pull off a similar result here. Even though he is much older than Murray, his firepower should rout Andy given that the Brit's defence is a shell of what it once was. Wawrinka plays Norrie in Round 2. Norrie, a former Masters 1000 champion, has been in abysmal form for a while. However, he has just the kind of playstyle that will wear and grind down the 39-year-old Swiss, whose fitness and stamina are waning as he reaches the end of his professional career. But the Round of 16 sees Jannik Sinner's first real hurdle. Rome finalist Nicolas Jarry will try to take the racquet out of the World No. 2's hands with his destructive serve and forehand. The Chilean turned a new leaf in the Italian capital and is seeking to carry that vicious power into the second Slam of the year.

The other end of this quarter is occupied by 8th seed Hubert Hurkacz. The Pole is burgeoning on clay and made a run to the quarterfinals of Rome. While he should advance routinely to the third round with victories over Mochizuki and Nakashima, he could clash against either Shapovalov or Tiafoe at that stage. Their second-round match promises to be a flamboyant display underscored by dizzying highs and atrocious lows. Although they have both been playing horrendous tennis this year, Shapovalov has been marginally better on the clay and therefore I am picking him to get the win. But his luck should run out against Hubert in the third round, with the towering Pole's serve exposing his return. Our dark horse Tabilo also resides in this section. The fiery Chilean had an inspiring trip to the semifinals in Rome with his compatriot Jarry, and even gave eventual champion Zverev a run for his money. Although 10th seed Dimitrov is the favourite to make it out of this section unscathed, I am choosing Tabilo to upset the Bulgarian in the third round. Dimitrov, now 33, has been a bit disappointing this clay swing and his fitness has been questionable at times. These two played in Miami earlier this year, and while Tabilo was mere points from victory, Grigor escaped by the skin of his teeth. But Alejandro should get the better of him this time given his affinity for the dirt.

I have Sinner and Hurkacz battling it out in the quarters. Much like Alcaraz, my prediction is totally dependent on Sinner's injury. However, if the Italian does turn out to be healthy, he should make the semifinals. Theoretically, Jannik's game - a balance of power and margin - translates perfectly to the clay of RG. This year, I am backing the second seed to make his first real move at the French Open.

Prediction: Sinner def. Hurkacz

Semifinal Predictions

Zverev def. Djokovic in 5

Alcaraz def. Sinner in 5

Final Prediction:

Alcaraz def. Zverev in 4

Thank you for reading this preview. For more information on the French Open, head to the 'Tournaments' page.

View the full draw here 👇 (via Roland Garros Website)

https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/results/SM?round=1